Brussels, 27/06/2016 (Agence Europe) - The European summit on Tuesday 28 and Wednesday 29 June will take place in two instalments, and the highlights will be the dinner on the first day in European Council format, at which the British Prime Minister, David Cameron, will report back on the situation following the referendum of 23 June, and an informal meeting of the EU27 the next day to ensure that their British opposite number gets the message that no negotiations on the United Kingdom leaving the EU will be possible until formal notification of its withdrawal has been sent.
Once they have dealt with the current affairs (see other articles), the heads of state or government will meet in the evening to discuss the consequences of the British referendum (see EUROPE 11580) and hear what Cameron “intends to do in the coming weeks and months”, one diplomat said. However, he will not be put under any pressure to trigger the withdrawal procedure and the activation of Article 50 of the Treaty this week. Cameron has already said that “he was not in a position to trigger the notification”, the diplomat added. Furthermore, Cameron made this clear before the British Parliament on Monday 27 June.
In Brussels on Sunday 26 June, the 27 'Sherpas', the diplomatic advisers to the member states, met for the first time in a limited format without the UK, accompanied by the permanent representatives to the EU. They took note of the fact that it is not yet possible for Cameron to trigger Article 50, which automatically starts negotiations on the withdrawal agreement, and included the fact that London would not be asked to make this notification this week.
The question of the timetable and the deadline for the British authorities to make their notification will, however, most definitely be raised at the European Council, even though Cameron's successor will not be announced before September. The United Kingdom is also expected to be asked this week to waive its rotating Presidency of the Council of the EU in the second half of 2016. Estonia, which was to take its place after the United Kingdom, may therefore be called upon to do so six months earlier than expected.
One of the messages the heads of state or government will want to send out will be that “there is no time to lose” and that the uncertainty must not be prolonged, particularly as it affects the markets. However, they will also have to take account of a major issue, namely the political row the referendum has created in the United Kingdom and the fact that the British leaders are currently unable to get a clear idea of what to do next, or even of the exit plan they have in mind. “Nobody in United Kingdom seems to know what's at the end of it all”, the diplomats went on. This includes, amongst other things, the form of cooperation London hopes to have with the EU once the United Kingdom is a third country to its European partners.
Against this “toxic” internal British backdrop, which is likely to continue until the end of the year, the British ambassador to Brussels confirmed that there was no plan for the next steps to follow the referendum, according to another diplomatic source. The message of the 27 member states, which is expected to be published on Wednesday, will therefore also have to stress that they understand the current situation of agony the UK finds itself in. However, London must also have regard to the proper functioning of the EU and take account of the fact that the other member states have to be able to continue to do their work, particularly legislative work. “We can't wait too long [for the notification] in the spirit of Article 50”, a third diplomatic source said. However, we are aware that “realistically, it won't be possible before October”, this source added.
During their informal meeting on Wednesday, the EU27 will therefore have to set a few ground rules. They will take note of the result of the referendum, stress that in this situation, the Treaty defines a legal framework that has to be followed and emphasise that until the Article 50 procedure has been triggered, no discussions or negotiations are possible. They are also expected to make it clear to the British authorities that there is no alternative to Article 50.
The member states are divided, with some wishing the notification to be made as soon as possible and “others showing more understanding”, a diplomat said. The timeframes mentioned range from July to the end of 2016. The German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, is incidentally regarded as one of the European leaders with the greatest inclination to give London a bit of time.
From that point to considering that London might never make the notification and therefore stay in the EU is a single step, but one that many are not taking. Considering the British referendum as merely consultative and suggesting that it might be disregarded would be dangerous, according to a national source. It would have the effect of distancing the citizens even further from the EU. “However, this does not mean that we need to rush into it or do it without the agreement of the British or push them out”, as the interests of the EU27 are that this withdrawal process “is carried out in the best possible way” and “we expect the same solidarity of the United Kingdom with regard to our functioning”.
On Monday afternoon, the head of the Polish political party PiS, which is currently in power, directly called for a second referendum to be held in the United Kingdom, which a diplomat in Brussels has not ruled out as a possibility within a minimum of “two to three years”. However, Cameron told the House of Commons on Monday that the “clear vote of the British people must be respected”. “The process (of leaving the EU) must be triggered”, he said.
Another European Council on the future of the EU in the pipeline. As regards the future of the Union, the message sent out by this meeting of the heads of state or government is expected to be sober in tone. The conclusions will not announce any future major institutional projects, conventions or revisions of the Treaties. The EU27 are expected to reiterate that they remain determined to work together on the planned agenda. For instance, the conclusions will not give a mandate to a group of “the wise”. “The first response is that we have an agenda and we are going to follow it”, said one of our sources. Then, we will have to start to learn lessons for the EU and collectively to reflect on what has happened, the diplomat continued. “How can we avoid isolation? How can we avoid a repeat of this? What can we do to restore confidence in the EU in the coming months and years?” will be among the questions asked.
The EU27 will start this reflection and the President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, may convene an informal meeting of the 27 heads of state or government at the end of July, to discuss this matter of the future of the EU, according to one source. The questions which have been raised by the shock result of the referendum of 23 June will necessarily have to do with the EU's areas of competence and the vital sectors that should be focused on, such as the economy and employment, security, defence and growth.
In the meantime, a task force has been set up by the Secretariat General Council of the EU, led by Belgium's Didier Seeuws. The role of this task force will be to manage the political aspects of the negotiations with the British, whilst the Commission will be responsible for the more legal aspects. The Commission's task force, which was led by Jonathan Faull during negotiations on the status the United Kingdom would have in the EU if the referendum had gone a different way, was dissolved on Monday.
A European Council that has other matters to deal with as well. This meeting of the European Council will also briefly touch upon issues such as migration and foreign affairs (see other article). In the field of economics, the EU28 will call for a deepening of the single market, particularly in the digital field (see EUROPE 11579). They are also expected to ask for an extension beyond 2018 of the Juncker plan designed to draw down €315 billion in new investments over three years (see EUROPE 11578) and approve the creation of national productivity authorities in the eurozone countries (see EUROPE 11576).
On migration, the European Council is expected to reiterate that the agreement with Turkey of 18 March has borne fruit and helped to reduce arrivals. It is also expected to call for more efforts to reduce the number of so-called “economic” migrants arriving in the central Mediterranean and the implementation of partnerships with third countries to reduce illegal immigration. Additional actions will also be called for to speed up the relocation and resettlement programmes for asylum seekers and refugees, according to provisional draft conclusions. (Original version in French by Solenn Paulic with Jan Kordys and Mathieu Bion)