Brussels, 24/06/2016 (Agence Europe) - In the early hours of the morning of Friday 24 June came the confirmation: in future, the European Union will have 27, rather than 28, members with the withdrawal of the United Kingdom after its people voted by 51.9% to 28.1% to leave the EU.
Apart from the announcement of the resignation of UK Prime Minister David Cameron in the autumn (see other article), the immediate effect of this momentous decision and worst-case scenario that Europe's main leaders had been fearing was to send European stock exchanges into a spin and cause the pound sterling to fall to its lowest levels since 1985 (see other article).
Politically and legally, this new state of affairs pushes the EU and the United Kingdom into completely uncharted territory, creating for both a historic precedent. After joining the European bloc in 1973, on Friday, the UK became the first country indicate a desire to withdraw after 60 uninterrupted years of European construction and accession.
The latest polls on the evening before the vote still put the Remain camp ahead but this presumed lead was progressively eaten away as the results were announced. Only the major cities, like London, and Scotland gave a clear vote to remain in the EU, while Wales and the remainder of England came out more for leaving the European bloc. Northern Ireland delivered a majority in favour of staying in the EU. With a turn-out of 72.2%, the results signal an undisputable victory for the Brexit side, led by Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson. Sociologically, older voters tended to support withdrawal while young people in the main voted to keep the UK inside the EU.
“We regret this decision, but respect it”, commented officially the presidents of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, the European Council, Donald Tusk, the European Parliament, Martin Schulz, and the Netherlands prime minister, Mark Rutte. Juncker said, in a brief statement to the press, he personally was saddened, and he expressed the hope that, in the future, the United Kingdom would remain a close partner of the EU. “We will stand strong and uphold the EU's core values. The Union of 27 Member States will continue”, the four leaders said. “We are bound together by history, geography and common interests and will develop our cooperation on this basis. Together we will address our common challenges”, they promised.
Tusk had been the first European leader to comment on Friday morning, describing the situation as serious, dramatic even. While the European Council had prepared itself for this outcome, “it is impossible to foresee all the political consequences, especially for the United Kingdom”, he noted.
On Tuesday 28 and Wednesday 29 June, the European summit will provide the first opportunity for a meeting of the 27 member states and the soon-to-be third country that is the UK. Over dinner on Tuesday evening, Cameron will be invited to set out the political situation in the United Kingdom and, the next day, the 27 will meet “informally” to assess the “political and practical implications of Brexit” - discussing firstly “the so called 'divorce process' as described in Art. 50 of the Treaty” before going on to “start a discussion on the future of the European Union with 27 member states”, Tusk says in his letter of invitation to European leaders.
Giving formal notice of withdrawal “as soon as possible”. On Friday the presidents of the four institutions sent a very clear message: they expect the United Kingdom government to give effect to the decision of the British people to leave the EU “as soon as possible, however painful that process may be. Any delay would unnecessarily prolong uncertainty”, they state.
The four leaders also made clear that, with Brexit, the New Settlement for the United Kingdom within the European Union, approved by the member states on 18 February, automatically ceases to exist. Had the UK remained a member of the EU, this agreement would have allowed it not to be part of ever-closer union that forms part of the Treaty, to enjoy special arrangements on the free movement of workers, and to ensure that certain euro zone decisions would not affect it financially (see EUROPE 11495).
A number of questions remained to be answered the day after the referendum, first and foremost, when London notifies the UK's intention to withdraw. On Friday, Cameron indicated that notification of withdrawal, triggering Article 50, would be sent to the Commission by the new prime minister, that is to say, in October. This timescale is to allow Tory leader to put in place the arrangements for finding his successor and for UK Conservatives to elect the person who will lead the negotiations that will culminate in Brexit. Negotiations on the exit agreement cannot, however, begin until notification is given. The Treaty and Article 50 are very imprecise on this point and do not set any maximum timescale for submitting notification of withdrawal.
One point of certainty is that the Treaty is clear on the fact that once this formal notification has been sent, the negotiations for redefining the terms between the EU and this future third country will have to last two years. Should there be an agreement in these two years, which would be adopted by a special qualified majority vote, the country's departure would then become effective. If an agreement cannot be found during this time, a unanimous decision by the 28 can be taken to extend the negotiations. If an agreement is impossible, European law automatically ceases to be applied to the exiting country after the notification of withdrawal.
The negotiations on the withdrawal agreement will focus on various subjects - trade, customs tariffs, the possibilities of the UK having access to the single market, the future format of relations between the two entities (a Swiss or Norwegian type format?), the future status of European civil servants of British nationality. During the negotiations, the UK will remain a full and complete member of the Council of the EU, it will keep its European commissioner as well as its MEPs. It will theoretically even be able hold the rotating presidency of the Council of the EU planned for the second half of 2017. The country, even on exit, will participate in the Council discussions and will keep its voting rights.
During the negotiations on its relations with the EU, the UK will be asked to leave the discussion table when the 27 adopt their position on the withdrawal agreement. Article 50 of the Treaty does not provide for an outgoing country to take part in the discussions of the European Council or of the Council of the EU on the decisions that concern this country.
Pending the decision of the British notification, the European leaders will try by Tuesday to bring initial political responses to the British referendum vote (see other article). An initial meeting is planned in Berlin on Monday 27 June, at the initiative of Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel, with the French and Italian leaders, François Hollande and Matteo Renzi. Tusk will also be invited to these discussions. On their side, the Visegrad countries (Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia) are also expected to meet soon to analyse the consequences of the British referendum. The College of European Commissioners will meet on Monday, and the European Parliament will hold an extraordinary session during the morning of Tuesday 28 June.
Some potential geopolitical impacts already known. In the longer term, other geopolitical consequences can be envisaged. Scotland could again ask for its independence, as Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon mentioned on Friday, even if this second Scottish independence referendum will only be held with the agreement of London. Irish Prime Minister Enda Kenny said he would closely observe the implications of the British referendum on relations between the north and south of Ireland. “We will address these questions in the same spirit of partnership that supported the peace process and that has transformed our relations on this island since the Good Friday agreement”, he said. On Monday Kenny will meet leaders of the government of Northern Ireland at the ministerial Council between the north and south of the island. Sinn Fein, the former political wing of the Irish Republican Army (IRA), has called for a new referendum to be held, this time on the unification of northern and southern Ireland.
In Spain, the foreign minister Jose Manuel Garcia Margallo has proposed shared sovereignty between Spain and the UK over the British enclave of Gibraltar, so as to enable this territory to have access to the EU single market after Brexit. On radio Onda Cero, he proposed a formula of “co-British-Spanish-sovereignty for a limited period, which will lead to the return of Gibraltar to Spain”. During this transitional period, the inhabitants of Gibraltar could keep British nationality if they wanted, and a special tax regime, Garcia Margallo continued. In Gibraltar, the inhabitants voted massively for the UK to remain in the EU.
In addition, the shockwave caused by the British referendum will certainly have repercussions on the European continent. Eurosceptic and Europhobic forces will want to step into the breach to progress their agenda of a dislocated Union (see other article). There is thus a high risk situation as parliamentary elections take place in Spain ion Sunday, and as Germany and France renew their national leaders in 2017. (Original version in French by Solenn Paulic with Camille-Cerise Gessant and Sophie Petitjean)