Brussels, 16/03/2016 (Agence Europe) - Smashing the logic of the economic model of smugglers by sending all migrants back to Turkey, including those entitled to claim asylum in the EU but who entered it illegally and, until migration flows into the EU stop completely, to set up a 'one out one in' system consisting of the legal resettlement in the EU of one Syrian refugee currently on Turkish soil for every Syrian migrant sent back from Greece to Turkey.
On Thursday 17 and Friday 18 March, the European leaders will attempt to agree on these principal elements, in a further emergency summit to be largely given over to the migration crisis and the strategy the EU intends to employ to discourage migrants from entering its territory.
The aim of the Twenty-Eight will be to concretise the initial exchanges to this end with Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu on 7 March, and which also covered the question of accession negotiations and visa liberalisation (see other article) (see EUROPE 11506 and 11509). “The aim is clear: we want an agreement, although it will not be easy”, a European source said on Wednesday 16 March. The draft agreement has so far elicited “not entirely positive reactions”, another diplomat commented.
Basically, over dinner on Thursday evening, the European leaders will hone their position regarding Turkey and will seek to finalise, in the morning of the following day, an agreement with the Turkish Prime Prime Minister.
More specifically, the European Council will be tackling a “catalogue” of problems to be resolved, as the President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, announced from Ankara on Tuesday. On Wednesday, Frans Timmermans, the first vice-president of the European Commission, broke down the work to be carried out into three points. We need to tackle the “political, legal and practical aspects of this agreement”, he commented, bearing in mind the fact that nobody “can be satisfied with the current situation” and that the scenes of distress seen in Idomeni, on the border between Greece and Macedonia, must never be allowed to happen again (see EUROPE 11512).
As far as the legal aspects are concerned, the European leaders are first of all expected to 'bullet-proof' the agreement with Ankara regarding a return mechanism for migrants seeking asylum between the EU and Turkey and regarding the principle of 'one out one in'. Observing legality will involve asking both Greece and Turkey to carry out legislative changes to ensure that these systems fully comply with international law, a number of sources explained on Wednesday.
For instance, Greece will have to ensure that it offers genuine opportunities to challenge return decisions to Turkish soil. For its part, Turkey will have to guarantee that it makes protection available on its territory which is equivalent to the standards of the Geneva Convention on refugees, which it has ratified only partially and to which it has added a number of geographical restrictions. However, on Wednesday, no sources were able to explain exactly which changes had been requested of these countries. The idea is to offer “essentially” equivalent protection on Turkish soil to Syrian refugees and those of other nationalities, guaranteeing that the principles of the Geneva Convention will be complied with for all asylum seekers in Turkey.
The Greek authorities will first of all have to ensure that the asylum applications made by migrants are properly assessed on an individual basis, as this is a fundamental pillar of the right to asylum. They will then be able to invoke articles 35 and 38 of the 'Asylum procedures' directive (2013/32) to state that the migrant could be protected just as well in Turkey. Article 35 will allow the Greeks to state that the migrant has already been through a country where he or she has asked for protection and article 38 stipulates that Turkey is a safe third country. The migrant will still be able to challenge the fact that Turkey is not a safe country for him or her and ultimately remain in Greece, where the asylum application will be dealt with. On the other hand, there is no absolute right to suspensory appeals, one source said, which means that this person could still be sent back to Turkey.
'One out one in' mechanism will be temporary and voluntary
The 'one out one in' mechanism will only be temporary, until flows slow down and are reduced to very little. It will concern only Syrian migrants and will not be retroactive, meaning that Syrians who have already reached Greece will have to remain there. Basically, any Syrian arriving in Greece in the future through a smugglers' network will theoretically be sent back to Turkey, a country in which he or she will be able to claim international protection. Another Syrian refugee waiting in a camp may then hope to be resettled in the EU in return.
Iraqi or Eritrean migrants, who are also entitled to claim international protection in the EU, will not be affected by the 'one out one in' principle. They may be sent back to Turkey in the same way as the Syrians, but on the basis of a broader agreement between the EU and Turkey on the readmission of illegal migrants. This latter option, however, remains vague and presupposes that these Iraqi or Eritrean refugees have no possibility of resettlement in exchange for this return on the same basis as the design of the scheme for Syrians.
The 'one out one in' mechanism will, in any case, be voluntary. The member states have no intention of making any further commitments in terms of figures. At the outside, they will be able to agree, once the mechanism comes to an end, to carry out further resettlements under the voluntary humanitarian readmission programme proposed in late 2015 by Germany, but which currently exists only between a coalition of voluntary countries and with no specific indication in terms of figures.
The resettlements under the 'one out one in' mechanism may be carried out within the existing reserves of 18,000 places from the resettlement programme of 22,000 places, which was adopted in July 2015 by the Home Affairs Ministers (4,555 places have already been awarded). The member states may then draw on the reserves left available by the relocation process of refugees already present in the EU, thereby hammering a further nail into the coffin of a mechanism which has yet to show its worth. Only 937 refugees present in Greece and Italy have been relocated, out of the planned 160,000. The European Commission has itself accepted the fact that the member states will be able to resettle refugees on the basis of the reserve 54,000 relocation places which were offered to Hungary but turned down.
Despite these clarifications, the legal and practical aspects of this agreement still remain vague. But “I can see no options other than the ones we are proposing”, Timmermans said, with a particular view to breaking up smuggling rings. He also refuted the suggestion that the EU was “turning its back on the asylum seekers”. “We are not turning our back, because there will be international protection for them, either in the EU or in Turkey”, he said, explaining that the EU had a “moral obligation” to take care of these people.
Other elements remain outstanding in this draft agreement with Turkey, such as the financial envelope to be granted to Ankara to take that these migrants and provide them with shelter, as the EU has committed to provide only €3 billion so far. The mobilisation of this envelope, which may rise to €6 billion, must be speeded up.
On the ground, the situation has in any case improved in recent weeks. According to a diplomatic source, the number of crossings between Greece and Turkey since 7 March has fallen from 8,800 units to around 1,260 a week. In January and February, around 2,000 people a day crossed. (Original version in French by Solenn Paulic, Sophie Petitjean and Camille-Cerise Gessant)