Brussels, 01/03/2016 (Agence Europe) - Javier Solana, former head of European diplomacy and secretary general of NATO, has expressed his concern about Algeria's “uncertainty”.
In an analysis of the region's situation published on the Project-syndicate website, where eminent personalities share their opinions, Solana notes: “Five years after the start of the so-called Arab Spring, the hope that initially characterised those revolutions has largely been dashed. In many cases, the revolutions have evolved into brutal and protracted internal conflicts, with no solution in sight. Amid all of this strife, the international community has paid little attention to countries like Algeria, where the revolutionary spirit was stifled while still incipient. But Algeria's fate is back on the world's radar - and not a moment too soon.”
The calm would seem to be misleading: “the 'consensus' that supposedly shapes Algerian politics has, in fact, paralysed decision-making for many years now. With the ailing Bouteflika not seen in public for more than a year, important questions have emerged about how the 2019 presidential election will play out.” Against this background, the sharp decline in oil prices since June 2014 “has underscored the unsustainability of the country's economic model”. “If the price of oil does not rise soon, and Algeria's leaders are forced to take more drastic measures, social stability could be jeopardised.” To avoid such an outcome, Solana believes that “Algeria's government must work fast to diversify the economy. But such concerted action will be difficult in the current political environment, especially in view of the government's increased focus on security challenges in Algeria's neighbourhood.”
In Solana's view, Algeria's role in the region is sensitive: “the United States and Europe have already recognised Algeria's leadership and cooperation in anti-terror efforts in its neighbourhood. For the European Union, a further strengthening of ties with Algeria is particularly important, given both sides' interest in the stability of nearby North Africa and the Sahel”, as well as Algeria's potential to help improve the EU's energy security, Solana states.
Another important figure to ring the alarm bell is Abderrahmane Mebtoul, a renowned Algerian economist and strategic adviser. He too recognises that Algeria is causing its partners concern: “We cannot therefore continue at this rate. It's a reckless mentality - in other words, spending without counting. We think that with the money from hydrocarbons we can resolve all problems. The two concepts of wealth and the accumulation of capital must not be confused. They are not the same thing at all. There must be a cultural change of Algerian leaders in order to adapt to new situations - both local and international”, Mebtoul has said in statements to the media. He does not intend to be alarmist, however. He does “not think there will be a social implosion in the short-term. We have two or three years' respite”, and in his opinion, the government still has the means to redress the situation. (Original version in French by Fathi B'Chir)