Brussels, 10/11/2015 (Agence Europe) - The economic impact of the influx of refugees into certain member states will constitute an exceptional circumstance with regard to the Stability and Growth Pact, to be dealt with on a case-by-case basis in the draft national budgets for 2015 and 2016.
In line with our request, the European Commission has presented its opinion: public expenditure related to hosting refugees in the countries of the EU will constitute “exceptional circumstances” with regard to the Stability Pact, to be looked at on a “case-by-case basis” for the years “2015 and 2016”, with 2014 as the reference year, said the President in exercise of the Ecofin Council, Pierre Gramegna.
In early November, the European Commission said that the influx of refugees in the EU would have a slight positive economic impact between now and 2020, in the order of 0.2% to 0.3% of GDP (see EUROPE 11425). Our aim is to present opinions on the 2016 draft national budgets “next week”, Vice-President Valdis Dombrovskis said, with a discussion at the level of the College of Commissioners due to take place this week.
During the debate, the German finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, counselled caution: we have told the other participants that we must do all in our power to mobilise and provide a solution to the situation of the refugees, but this must not be at the cost of unbalancing the budget.
The day before, the President of the Eurogroup, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, argued in favour of a flexible interpretation of the Stability Pact in order to help the countries in question to tackle this phenomenon. For a number of countries, there are reasons to consider that the economic impact of the massive influx of refugees is a “major” challenge and could lead to “exceptional circumstances” being invoked with regard to the European budgetary rules, he said, stressing that this was his own personal opinion.
Four countries (Austria, Belgium, Italy and Finland) refer to the impact of hosting refugees on their public finances in their national documents (see EUROPE 11425). Portugal, whose government is to step down on Tuesday, has not yet presented its draft budget for 2016 on the basis of unchanged policy, contrary to the rules of the revised Pact. An extraordinary Eurogroup meeting will be held on Monday 23 November to approve the opinions to be submitted by the European Executive to the member states. (Original version in French by Mathieu Bion with Pascal Hansens)