Brussels, 05/11/2015 (Agence Europe) - Three million migrants could enter the EU by 2017, suggested the European Commission on Thursday 5 November in its autumn economic forecast. This is a technical assumption, not a firm prediction, the Commission states a little later (see other article).
The Commission is working on the assumption of 1 million migrants in 2015, 1.5 million in 2016 and then a drop to 500,000 in 2017. It pointed out, too, that the new arrivals would contribute to the European economy, lifting EU GDP by between 0.2% and 0.3% by 2020. They will also increase Europe's population by 0.4%, once unfounded asylum requests have been rejected, according to the Commission.
In the meantime, on Wednesday 4 November, the Commission held a further video-conference with representatives of the countries that took part in the mini-summit on the Balkan route on 25 October. At this weekly conference, Slovenia told the others that it expected 250 police officers (of the 400 promised) to be in place by mid-November, with 33 currently deployed. A further 40 will be deployed at the end of the week and 177 more within ten days, the Commission said in a press release. The Frontex agency reported on Operation Poseidon off the coast of Greece, in which 256 Frontex agents are involved, including 35 presently on the Greek islands to assist with the operation of the “hotspots”, where migrants are registered and identified. Frontex expects 143 agents in total to be working in the hotspots by the end of January.
Among the other topics discussed, some Balkan countries informed their partners about reception places that have been freed up to meet the commitment to create 50,000 reception places for refugees along the length of the Balkan route (Greece has also promised to create 50,000 places on its soil). Serbia indicated that it was making 3,000 additional places available in addition to the 3,000 announced last week. Croatia is planning 5,000 places and Slovenia confirmed 2,000 places. Austria's pledge no longer stands as announced. According to the Commission, Austria has indicated that discussions were continuing on extending its reception capacity. On 29 October, Austria promised to provide 5,000 places. It was also announced that official visits by the Commission would take place to Zagreb on 6 November and to Ljubljana on 9 November. The next teleconference has been scheduled for 10 November. (Original version in French by Solenn Paulic)