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Europe Daily Bulletin No. 11408
EXTERNAL ACTION / (ae) syria

Europeans remain hazy on medium-term future of Bashar al-Assad

Luxembourg, 12/10/2015 (Agence Europe) - On Monday 12 October, the EU foreign ministers stated that there could be no peace if Syria's President Bashar al-Assad is maintained, yet they did not say if he could be part of the political transition - a conclusion that underlines the European disunity of this issue. They also called on Russia to stop its air strikes that do not target terrorist organisations.

“There cannot be a lasting peace in Syria under the present leadership and until the legitimate grievances and aspirations of all components of the Syrian society are addressed”, the ministers state in their conclusions, without being more precise. “There is no solution for Assad today”, Luxembourg's Foreign Minister Jean Asselborn summed up, stating that the EU supported the efforts of UN Special Envoy Staffan de Mistura, who is talking to all the parties, including Assad.

When the ministers arrived at the Foreign Affairs Council, their differences in opinion were clear. “To have peace in Syria, a political transition is needed. This must be without Bashar al-Assad. There will be no peace in Syria with Bashar al-Assad, who is responsible for most of the victims in this civil war”, France's Secretary of State for European Affairs Harlem Désir stated. However British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond was more flexible. “We can't work with Assad as a long-term solution for the future of Syria. We can be flexible on how he will have to go (…) and on the time of his departure”, he said. “But if we try to work with Assad, we will only drive the opposition into the arms of ISIL - exactly the opposite of what we want”, he added. “We are spending too much time on speculating on the future of Assad and we should rather be focusing on how to resolve the situation (…) We will have to build on the reality which is not knowing who we like and who we don't like, but knowing who is relevant and who is not. And today, he is relevant”, said Slovakia's minister, Miroslav Lajcak. In their conclusions, the EU foreign ministers state that the regime bears “the greatest responsibility” for the 250,000 deaths in the conflict and the millions of displaced people.

The Council also calls on “all Syrian parties to show a clear and concrete commitment to the UN-led process and to participate actively in the working groups”. “The EU underlines the urgency for the moderate political opposition and associated armed groups to unite behind a common approach in order to present an alternative to the Syrian people”, the EU ministers add, stating that this moderate opposition “is a vital element in fighting extremism and has a key role to play in the political transition”. The ministers also urge all those who have an influence on the parties, including on the Syrian regime, to use this influence to encourage a constructive role in the process leading to a political transition and to end the cycle of violence.

According to the EU ministers, the international community should unite around two “complementary and interlinked tracks” - a political track “that aims to bring an end to the civil war by addressing all the root causes of the conflict and establish an inclusive political transition process that will restore peace to the country”, and a security track to focus on the fight against the regional and global threat of ISIL. High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Federica Mogherini stated that the EU would “work hard and concretely” with de Mistura on the political process.

Europeans criticise Russian air strikes. The ministers also underlined their deep concern about the recent Russian military attacks which go beyond terrorist groups. The air strikes “must cease immediately”, the EU ministers state, saying that the action against ISIL must be closely coordinated between all the partners and must clearly target Da'esh, Jabhat al-Nusra, and the other UN-designated terrorist groups. “The interventions in the conflict must be coordinated, otherwise it risks being extremely dangerous, not only from the political point of view, but especially from the military point of view”, said Mogherini. “The situation on the ground had not changed (…) but what has changed is the position and the strength of the individual actors. With the [Russian] appearance (…) the efforts for a political solution have become more difficult, more complex”, said Germany's Foreign Minister Frank Walter Steinmeier. In Mogherini's view, the Russian intervention in Syria is “a game changer”. “This has worrying aspects”, she added.

“This military escalation risks prolonging the conflict, undermining a political process, aggravating the humanitarian situation and increasing radicalisation”, the EU ministers state, calling on Moscow “to focus its efforts on the common objective of achieving a political solution to the conflict”. According to Sweden's Foreign Minister Margot Walström, the Europeans must encourage the Russians to play a role by engaging more on the political track than the military one. “In this context [the Council] urges Russia to push for a reduction of violence and implementation of confidence-building measures by the Syrian regime”, the Council adds, stating that the Assad regime cannot be a partner in the fight against ISIL. (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant)

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