Brussels, 01/09/2015 (Agence Europe) - Growth in Portugal is staying its course (+0.4% of GDP in the second quarter of 2015) and unemployment is continuing to fall (12.1% in July, compared to 12.3% in June), according to the updated figures published by the Portuguese Institute of Statistics (Ine) on Monday 31 August.
The Portuguese economy is led by exports, the resumption of investments and household consumption expenditure. Like the European Commission in its spring forecasts, the outgoing centre-right government predicts that the Spanish GDP will grow by 1.6% following an increase of 0.9% in 2014, following three years of recession. The Portuguese public debt is expected to fall to 124.4% of GDP in 2015, having reached a peak of 130.2% in 2014.
However, the European institution and the Portuguese authorities differ over the reduction of the public deficit, which is expected to go slightly above the threshold of 3% of GDP this year, according to the Commission, whilst Lisbon anticipates a deficit of 2.7%. At a twice-yearly post-financial bailout plan monitoring mission, the representatives of Portugal's creditors flagged up a “weakening of the budgetary consolidation effort” (see EUROPE 11335).
The drop in unemployment has benefited all categories of the population, particularly young people below the age of 25, although their unemployment rate remains very high at 31%. “Whether the opposition likes it or not, the drop in unemployment is good news for the Portuguese; it marks a return to confidence, investment and growth. There is still a long way to go, but more than 80,000 jobs have been created in 2014”, said the employment minister, Pedro Mota Soares, AFP reports.
The Portuguese general elections are scheduled for 4 October. The opinion polls show that the Socialist party and the outgoing coalition are neck and neck, with the Socialists slightly ahead (36.3%) of the alliance formed by the Social Democratic Party (PSD, centre right) and the CDS (Conservative), at 34.8%. (Mathieu Bion)