Consolidation. For Europe, the year just getting underway will be the year of consolidation. In particular, the EU needs to consolidate the economic and political changes afoot, finalise various aspects of these and plug any remaining gaps. At the same time, it must clarify and perfect its external policy, which presupposes not taking a direct part in any armed conflict, and reinforcing dialogue and cooperation with third countries. Obviously, there is no question of any further enlargement, which has not just been ruled out for 2015 alone, but for the next five years.
This succinct overview should not give the impression that this will be a less active or an unengaged year for Europe. Quite the reverse: 2015 represents the first phase of economic and political relaunch. In 2014, the EU laid down objectives and prepared projects, against a backdrop of a great deal of difficulties and differences of opinion. It is now entering the finishing-touches phase and, for a number of aspects, the implementation phase, which will take the next several years.
Favourable global developments, European timetable laid down. From an economic point of view, some of the international developments are favourable to the EU, at least in the short term: drop in the euro, in the cost of oil and gas, in monetary rates, in the cost of investment. These are four positive elements, the economists tell us, if the EU uses them wisely. The experts also refer to other encouraging developments and a timetable has already been laid down for putting initiatives theoretically complete into practice; in particular, the investment plan is to be set in place. A number of dates have been circled: for example, the European Commission will present the Energy Europe project in March and the four presidents of the institutions or bodies involved - the European Council, the European Commission, Eurogroup and the ECB - will present a report on reinforcing the economic governance of the eurozone.
Tricky aspects and uncertainty. It is clear that these projects or proposals do not mean that the Community institutions and member states are in agreement over everything. Germany makes no secret of its reservations over a number of orientations or intentions of the ECB. In some cases, the member states' attitudes have led to confusion. France does not seem to be in a position to comply with the common provisions on reducing its structural budgetary deficit in 2015; it has called for specific timetables and terms, which other member states are challenging.
Additionally, uncertainty and confusion subsist over the United Kingdom's actual position about whether or not it will remain in the EU. We will not have our answer in 2015. And further doubts remain. This, incidentally, is why the EU has ringfenced a five-year period before taking position on any further accession and on other fundamental issues. The third countries in question need to take this on board.
Ukraine is listening - in its own way. When it announced its intention to join the EU, the Ukrainian government added that the official procedure would start in 2020. And now Ukraine has applied to join NATO, despite its status of non-aligned country! However, the unanimous agreement of all NATO countries is required and a handful of EU members, led by Germany, immediately expressed their reservations. Joining the EU and joining NATO: Ukraine's plans seem pretty unrealistic! Kiev seems to be pursuing objectives which by no means coincide with the EU's intentions.
The EU and Russia - complicated yet indispensable dialogue. The most sensitive question still open is that of the EU's relations with Russia and with Mr Putin. For a long time, the response was radical: that every fall-out, both sides reacted with sanctions, despite often heavy damage on both sides. Right now, Russia is coming off the worst, due to plummeting gas and oil prices.
However, the analyses prove that the links between the EU and Russia go a good long way beyond what is officially admitted to, for example for Germany, and it is no secret that all of the EU countries often disagree over the sanctions to be applied to Russia on a case-by-case basis. In March, the EU will be called upon to decide whether it will continue to enforce the current sanctions, a decision which will also be made on the basis of Vladimir Putin's attitude, as he may build bridges to new compromises, on Ukraine, obviously, but also as regards the Mistral vessels which have not (yet) been delivered by France to Moscow (and for which the EP had suggested a few unrealistic conditions). The next few months will make all the difference, as a decision will also have to be made as to whether to invite Mr Putin to the G7 (or G8), to be chaired this June by Angela Merkel, and preparations need to be made for the Eastern Partnership Summit to be held in Riga in May.
(FR)