Brussels, 25/06/2014 (Agence Europe) - The fate of Luxembourg's Christian Democrat Jean-Claude Juncker as possible head of the European Commission will very likely be decided through a vote at the European Council on Friday 27 June. Should this be so, this vote will be a break with the tacit tradition of consensus which has practised thus far for appointing presidents of the Commission.
Responding to the threat brandished by UK Prime Minister David Cameron of holding an “unprecedented” vote at the European Council - where qualified majority is now required in order to propose the name of the future president of the Commission to the European Parliament - European Council President Herman Van Rompuy warned the European affairs ministers in Luxembourg on Tuesday 24 June that he was ready to take this step. This is a decision which is directly up to him under the Treaties. “If a country demands a vote, there will be a vote”, a European source confirmed on Wednesday 25 June. “Cameron can always withdraw his demand for this vote - but in reality it is unlikely he will do so”, said another source.
Many member states are prepared for this possibility. France is not demanding it but will adapt to the circumstances and will vote in support of Juncker in line with the agreement concluded among the Social Democrat parties (see EUROPE 11106). Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel has predicted this possibility and has already said that it would “not be a drama” if Juncker only had a qualified majority and not unanimity. This is, moreover, “exactly what is provided for in the Treaties”, added Merkel.
A qualified majority vote rather than a decision by consensus would be unpleasant for Juncker in that he would know the countries opposing his appointment and this would possibly make future relations rather chilly. However, many observers believe there is no doubt as to the outcome of the vote.
Some of Cameron's traditional allies in his campaign against Juncker have defected. Sweden's Prime Minister Frederik Reinfeldt, who hosted a mini anti-Juncker summit in Harpsund at the beginning of June (see EUROPE 11097) has stated that he will support Juncker's nomination for the post of Commission president. The Netherlands also backs Juncker, said Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte.
Hungary is not ready to vote against the candidate from the political party that Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban belongs to either. Orban especially has a problem with the “Spitzenkandidaten” procedure that is not written into the Treaties. “It is not an opposition to a person”, said a source. Hungary seems to have obtained a response to its concerns - a consultation phase in line with the Treaty and conducted by Van Rompuy followed the calls supported by the European Parliament aiming to give a mandate to Juncker to garner a majority at the Council and the Parliament on his name. It is nevertheless currently impossible to predict how Orban will vote.
Another possibility being mentioned is that of Cameron's use of the Luxembourg compromise. Dating back to 1966 and enabling a state to put a brake on the adoption of a majority decision if the state's vital interests are at stake, the Luxembourg compromise was forged in order to put an end to the empty chair policy followed by France under Charles de Gaulle. This problem is that the Luxembourg compromise only concerns a decision made on a Commission proposal - which is not the case with Juncker.
Possible informal summit in mid-July. Several sources said on Wednesday that an informal summit of the 28 EU member states could be held in mid-July, following the European Parliament's vote on Juncker - which is scheduled for Tuesday 15 July. The objective would be to continue the process of appointments, very likely beginning with the post of high representative of the EU for foreign affairs and security policy although a simultaneous decision on several high level posts, including that of president of the European Council, is a possibility. (SP)