Brussels, 22/05/2014 (Agence Europe) - Will the European election results on 25 May seal the destiny of the future president of the Commission? Far from it. In a best case scenario, the name of this individual will be known in July and the composition of the College of Commissioners in October.
In the meantime, there are many formal, complex and above all, sufficiently vague procedures to ensure that member states keep some kind of control over the appointment of the candidate that suits them best. This is despite the fact that this first election under the auspices of the Lisbon Treaty confers more power on the European Parliament in this arena.
When the voting stations close in Italy, the European election results will be made known on Sunday at 11.00pm. A merry dance of negotiations will then follow at the summit bring forward a name, not necessarily that of one the candidates who have campaigned for the presidency of the Commission, as demanded by the European Parliament (EPP: Jean-Claude Juncker, PES: Martin Schulz, Liberals and Democrats: Guy Verhofstadt, Greens: José Bové and Ska Keller, European Left: Alexis Tsipras).
Room for manoeuvre. Parliament has sought to be actively involved in the appointment of the European Commission president and has pointed out that it can reject the candidate put forward by the Council. The texts stipulate only that the member states should present a candidate “taking into account the elections to the European Parliament”. This leaves European decision-makers significant room for interpretation. Declaration 11 to the treaty is in this respect both crucial and evasive: the Commission and the EP have “joint responsibility in the effective process leading up to the election of the European Commission president” and will hold “the necessary consultations in the framework judged to be the most appropriate”.
This is a summary statement of the procedures that should take place over the next few months. The machine will be set in motion on 27 May. In the morning, the outgoing leaders of the political groups at the parliament will meet up under the leadership of the EP president, Martin Schulz, to assess the election results. Although this latter is also a candidate for the presidency of the Commission, he will subsequently inform Herman Van Rompuy, the president of the European Council, at the outcome of this meeting. This is the European Parliament's interpretation of the consultation concept established in Declaration 11.
In the evening of the same day, heads of state and government will meet in Brussels for an informal dinner. Officially, they say they will not put forward any personal candidacy and will focus on procedures. In his letter of invitation, Van Rompuy stated that it was “too early to talk of names” and that they needed to “organise the work” over the next few weeks, in order to propose a candidate for the post of Commission president (see EUROPE 11084).
Appointment of the president. In a best case scenario, the name of the future Commission president could be revealed at the end of the European summit on 26-27 June. There are many different factors to take into account and these are likely to be part of a negotiating package incorporating all the key posts, in an effort to ensure a balance between nationality, political allegiance and gender. If a candidate were officially proposed at the EP in June, the EP could already approve or reject this candidate in a secret ballot during the second plenary session on 14-17 July in Strasbourg. According to the treaty (Article 17, paragraph 7), the president of the Commission shall be elected by qualified majority voting by MEPs (376 votes for required). If Parliament rejects the proposal, the Council will have to propose a new candidate, according to the same process within a month's timeframe. A second vote would therefore not take place until September.
Appointment of the College. Once the president of the Commission has been appointed, the Council will be able to adopt the list of commissioners who will make up the College, with the approval of the Commission president who has just been elected. A portfolio will have to be allocated by member state, which will therefore lead to long debates throughout summer. All the commissioners appointed will appear before the EP Parliamentary committee in charge of the commissioner's portfolio in question, after the summer recess, in the best case scenario. Each committee will determine, behind closed doors, whether it supports the candidate-commissioner or not.
In an ideal scenario, the September plenary session will approve the whole of the College, its work programme and the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs. If all are accepted, the Council will definitively appoint the individuals nominated by qualified majority. If all of these procedures are carried out without any intervening obstacles, the new Commission should be in place by October. The current Commission's mandate effectively ends on 31 October but the institution's mandate has sometimes been extended in the past. Extensions are therefore possible again.
Same scenario for the European Council president? The mandate of the president of the European Council ends on the 31st of November. The EP does not have any role to play in this domain. Nonetheless, the name of Van Rompuy's successor could be part of the overall negotiations linked to the appointment of the new Commission. (MD)