Brussels, 14/05/2014 (Agence Europe) - Just three seats is the tiny gap which will separate the two major European political families, the EPP and the PES, after the elections of 25 May, according to a new study published on Wednesday 14 May by PollWatch. According to this poll, the EPP will have 212 seats, compared to 209 for the Socialists and Democrats. The Liberals (ALDE) are expected to win 76 seats, a significant increase compared to previous surveys.
Presented as an increasing probability, the French and Dutch populists, Marine Le Pen and Geert Wilders, are expected to win their gamble of forming their own group, the European Alliance for Freedom (EAF). Apart from the French FN and the PVV, this group would be made up of Austria's FPÖ, the VB (Vlaams Belang) of Belgium, Italy's Lega Nord, the Slovakian SNS and Sweden's SD, according to the authors of the survey. They predict that the Liberal group will attract a number of MEPs during the post-election “horse-trading”. They put it as highly likely that the Czech Republic's ANO will join the ALDE, along with the Spanish party UPyD. The NVA, currently aligned to the Greens/EFA group, could move over to the CRE conservatives (as might Denmark's DFP and the Finnish Perussuomalaiset party). Beppe Grillo's M5S is likely to join Nigel Farage in the EFD group.
One thing is for sure, according to the authors of the study: the future parliament will be more polarised than it is currently, with more MEPs to the right of the EPP and on the radical left. They believe that the group currently formed by the EFD could even become the fourth-largest group of the EP, after the EPP, S&D and ALDE, overtaking the GUE/NGL, the CRE, the EAF and the Greens/EFA, which will be relegated to eighth position.
The initial projections on the basis of the results will not be announced until 11.00 PM on 25 May, a European Parliament spokesperson explained on Wednesday 14 May. This is in line with the election requirements which prevent any results from being divulged in advance of this date, despite the fact that the results will already be in from certain member states, such as the United Kingdom, where the citizens will go to the ballot boxes on 22 May.
From 10.00 PM onwards, the exit polls, which will have been issued by the member states, will be revealed, giving the first insight into the future composition of the assembly, but completely unofficial in nature. And from 9.00 PM onwards, turn-out estimates may also be announced.
It is unlikely that the definitive results will be available before Monday 26 May, the start of the period of negotiations to form alliances within the future EP and to appoint the candidate for the Presidency of the European Commission to be put forward to the Council. On 27 May, the heads of state or government of the member states will meet for an informal dinner on the subject, to be preceded that morning by a conference of the Presidents of the political groups of the EP. (SP)