Brussels, 16/04/2014 (Agence Europe) - A new opinion poll published by PollWatch on Wednesday 16 April again put the European People's Party (EPP) in the lead with 222 seats projected, ahead of the Socialists and Democrats (S&D) with 209 seats, after the European elections on 25 May. At one time outstripped by the S&D, which on 19 February was standing at 217 seats compared with the EPP's 200, the Centre-Right EPP seems to be back in the race, PollWatch states.
The EPP is gaining support in Poland - a phenomenon perhaps linked to the insecurity caused by the Ukrainian situation, believe the authors of the PollWatch study, Kevin Cunningham, Simon Hix and Michael Marsh. The EPP is also gaining votes in France. The Socialist parties have dropped slightly in Austria, Bulgaria, Hungary and Greece.
PollWatch nevertheless notes that the difference between the two main groups in the European Parliament is still relatively small, taking account of the margins of error. According to certain simulations and research, there is 25% probability that the S&D will have more members elected in the Parliament than the EPP. Overall, the three centrist political groups - the EPP, S&D and ALDE - would be down considerably on their current standing - from 72% of MEPs in the current Parliament, to 65% in the new Parliament, according to PollWatch. GUE and the Greens/EFA are forecast to win 12%, with 10% for the other two groups on the right (ECR and EFD) and around 13% for the non-attached. The latest forecasts suggest that the French and Dutch populists - Marine Le Pen and Geert Wilders respectively - would have enough MEPs from enough member states to form a group (around 38 MEPs from seven member states). (SP)