Brussels, 07/10/2013 (Agence Europe) - A good grain harvest in the EU and worldwide is likely to relieve the tight cereals and oilseeds market situation seen in the past year, especially for animal feed, states the European Commission's Autumn 2013 Short-Term Agricultural Outlook published on 7 October. In the livestock sectors, the decline in EU production of beef and pig meat in 2013 is forecast to be partly offset by an increase in poultry meat production with scope for continued growth in exports. For the dairy sector, after relatively high prices induced by strong global demand and tight world supplies, EU output has increased since the summer with improved weather conditions and is expected to increase in the year ahead.
The Commission notes that marketing year 2012-13 in the EU saw low grain availability especially for feed, high prices and low stocks. Cereal, oilseed and protein crop harvests in 2013 have so far turned out considerably higher than last year and relieve the market tightness at the start of the marketing year 2013-14. The Commission is predicting an 8.2% increase in grain harvests on average in 2013-14, as compared with 2012-13, to 301.5 million tonnes (134.9 million tonnes of soft wheat). Stocks are expected to increase to 40 million tonnes in 2013-14, compared with 27.6 million tonnes in 2012-13.
Meat. The decline in the 2013 production of beef and pig meat is partly compensated by an increase in poultry meat production. A different picture is expected in 2014 with beef and pig meat production recovering due to the improvement in producer margins and the increase in availability of dairy calves. In addition, adaptation to the new welfare rules in the pig sector should be completed and should imply a halt in the decline in sow numbers and an increase in pig slaughterings.
Milk. The Commission is expecting a 1.1% increase in milk production in the EU in 2014 and it points out that, with effect from marketing year 2014-15, there will no longer be any production quotas. It is possible, the Commission says, that the most competitive farmers will increase their milk production, for example, in countries, like France, where quotas are substantially under-used.
The higher availability in milk should allow farmers to grasp export opportunities on the world market, especially for cheese (up 54% over the course of the last ten years, that is, an increase of 270,000 tonnes, according to Eurostat figures). Global demand has remained strong and kept prices for dairy commodities near record high levels during summer. (LC/transl.fl)