Special report in Cyprus by Camille-Cerise Gessant
1. Negotiations for the reunification of Cyprus may be on the cards
Although Cyprus is on the front pages of newspapers around the world because of the financial crisis, the island has been living through a very different crisis since the 1970s. Following a putsch in Turkey, the Turkish army invaded the island in July 1974, leading to the division of the island into the Republic of Cyprus in the south and the Turkish Republic of the north of Cyprus (TRNC), which is only recognised diplomatically by Turkey. Ever since then, the Greek and Turkish Cypriot communities have tried on a number of occasions to find a solution to the division of the island, most recently with the unsuccessful Kofi Annan Plan of 2004.
Despite the financial crisis, the Republic of Cyprus says that reunification of the island is its top priority. While waiting for the requested bailout to kick in, it would like to take the opportunity this summer or autumn to launch a new negotiation process to find a solution to the division of the island. On 29 May 2013, leaders from the two Cypriot communities will meet to discuss the matter over dinner, but the United Nations Special Advisor on Cyprus, Alexander Downer, warned on 30 April 2013 that no talks between the two communities were scheduled and things had to progress gradually. Greek Cypriots feel that dealing with the financial crisis along with negotiating a solution is too much for this small country to handle. The Greek Cypriot president, Nicos Anastasiades, says the focus cannot be put on negotiating a solution at the moment. He hoped it could be done in the autumn, but right now the priority is to deal with the economic situation and provide answers to people's concerns. Greek Cypriot leaders and academics like Andreas Theophanous say that the Republic of Cyprus should not make concessions simply because it is in crisis. The Turkish Cypriot community believes the economic crisis is not a pretext to not act and it is concerned that the economic crisis will lead to a rise in nationalism. A Turkish Cypriot representative said that both things, the crisis and reunification talks, can be managed at the same time. The two things can be done in parallel, he said. The Turkish Cypriot community has higher hopes of Anastasiades, who backed the Annan Plan, than of the former Greek Cypriot president, Dimitris Christofias.
Time is pressing. General elections are scheduled for Northern Cypriot in 2014, which will probably prevent any progress being made next year and will delay the process still further. The more time drags on, the less the communities are prepared to make concessions. Older members of both communities say that they themselves will accept things that the younger generations are not prepared to accept but, like the European Commission, both communities recognise that the status quo is not tenable. US secretary of state John Kerry called, at a meeting with Greek Cypriot Foreign Affairs Minister Ioannis Kasoulides on 10 May 2013, for a thaw in the Cypriot “conflict”' and hoped it would be possible to move towards a settlement.
Both Cypriot communities want a two-community federation, and the debate is about what the exact contents of the federation should be and how it should pan out in practice. Although both sides express a desire to talk and find a solution, and both feel that the current dialogue methods do not allow progress to be made, they disagree about how dialogue should be pursued and what the real points to be settled are.
The weight of Turkey
The Greek Cypriots want Turkey to be involved early in the negotiating process, believing that the Turkish Cypriot representatives take their orders and real weight from Ankara, while the Turkish Cypriots say that Turkey, like Greece, should not intervene until a later stage in the negotiations. Theophanous says that no solution will be found until Turkish troops go home, and the key issue is Turkish expansionism on the island, along with the many Turkish “settlements”. For the permanent secretary, Andreas Mavroyannis, of the Republic of Cyprus' foreign affairs ministry, if Turkey withdrew from Cyprus, even if nothing was done about the line of demarcation, then it would be a completely different situation. Acting vice-president of the nationalised Cypriot oil company Kretyk, Solonas Kassinis, says he is certain that the Turkish prime minister, Erdogan, could solve the problem because there are not really any fundamental differences, but for that Erdogan would need a change of mindset.
For the Turkish Cypriots, the problem is that their Greek Cypriot counterparts do not want to share power.
Both sides would, however, like the negotiators for the Greek Cypriots and the technical experts from the Turkish Cypriots to be in the forefront initially, rather than the political leaders. One thing that the Greek and Turkish Cypriots agree on is that the negotiations should take place under the auspices of the United Nations rather than the European Union, which is too implicated in that the Republic of Cyprus is an EU member state.
Carbonated water?
The discovery of gas offshore in the waters around the island of Cyprus, along with the potential big money this could bring in its wake, is an added complication in these days of crisis. Mavroyannis says that exact size of the gas deposits and the ease with which they could be mined are unknown at the moment. He says it is known that there are large deposits of gas, but a lot of work will be needed and this will not happen overnight. Refusing to quote any figures, Kassinis says that Cypriot gas will be very competitive and could be of use to the EU. Estimates suggest that Block 12 to the south of Cyprus contains 226.5 billion cubic metres of gas, worth some 100 billion euro.
Greek and Turkish Cypriots hope that cooperation will be possible, although it is likely to be complicated. A representative of the Turkish Cypriot community says that the gas revenues could be used in the best way to deal with the crisis, but in order to be used in the best way, it will be necessary to cooperate with the Turkish part of the island. Cooperation in the supply of drinking water (from Turkey) and gas could help bring about unification, says the prime minister of the Turkish Republic in northern Cyprus, Ýrsen Küçük. Mavroyannis says that if areas of cooperation can be found, then so much the better. If diplomacy around fuel and oil can help solve the problem, then even better. But there won't be any huge changes overnight, he added, saying that, on the contrary, there is a complication. Turkey has already threatened the Republic of Cyprus with reprisals if it exploits resources discovered in its exclusive territorial waters. We are using international law and have not violated anyone's rights, says Kassinis.
Tension between Nicosia and Ankara are complicating matters for making use of the gas resources. It is viewed as cheaper to use Turkish gas pipelines, but this is not an option right now. Mavroyannis explains that it is not feasible to work with Turks and be subject to blackmail from Turkey although under other circumstance, of course this would be ideal and far cheaper. In economic terms, it is more profitable, but that would require a complete change in Turkey's attitude vis-à-vis Cyprus and settlement of the Cypriot problem, he added. Kassinis says the choice of liquefaction of the gas is technical rather than political. He says that to join the future Nabucco pipeline will not be doable. A liquefaction plant would have to be ready in 2019 to allow Cyprus to export its gas to anywhere in the world without transiting through Turkey.
The question of energy, along with the economic crisis, is certainly not going to ease tension in the region for the time being and could well make it more difficult to solve the political crisis.
2. The Republic of Cyprus wants new methods of negotiating
Andreas Mavroyannis, permanent secretary at the Republic of Cyprus' foreign affairs ministry, says the financial crisis does not provide an opportunity to find a solution to the division of the island. While Cyprus would like talks to start in the summer, Mavroyannis says that the current methods of negotiation are not working. The interview was carried out in French.
Agence Europe - Does the crisis provide a good opportunity to find a solution to the division of the island?
Andreas Mavroyannis - No! Quite the opposite. People shouldn't think that because we're in a period of crisis, we're going to give in on the minimum requirements laid down by the Greek Cypriot community for a solution. On the contrary, people have the impression that because some parties think this, what we'd be offered would be very bad. People are very hesitant, very sceptical, which incredibly reduces the room for manoeuvre of the president of the Republic of Cyprus. Any agreement would have to be endorsed by a referendum and if we are not careful, we could have a bigger percentage of no votes than the previous time round (Ed.: with the Annan Plan in 2004).
AE- Are you working on a new plan for a new solution?
AM - We are working on relaunching the process of seeking a solution. Above all, we don't want to use the same negotiating methods that got us nowhere in the past. We have been going round and round in circles on the Cypriot problem. We need to make decisive steps towards a solution so we are working hard to change the set-up. We are trying to put the problem against both a narrower backdrop, within the country, and a larger backdrop against the geopolitical landscape of the region, by getting all players on board, including Turkey. We all know that the key to the solution lies in Ankara. We are talking with Mr Eroglu (the president of northern Cyprus), in inter-community talks, which no longer have much meaning, but are a formality. I am not saying that these talks are not important, relatively speaking, but they don't really have the chance of generating a solution because the key player responsible for the lack of a solution is not involved in the talks. It is Turkey that takes the decisions, but we are talking with people who don't really have the ability to commit themselves.
The important thing is to do something to change the context within which we are developing and seeking a solution. Hence the idea of appointing negotiators on either side who must have full political power to negotiate, people who really represent the interests of the two communities. They must have full access to where they need to go. In other words, the Greek Cypriot negotiator must be able to go to Ankara to talk with the people who take the decisions.
By means of these negotiators, it will be possible to get over the problems (of recognition) and find a much more effective way of rapidly reaching critical mass to make the process irreversible. And it is only when the crucial mass has been reached that we will deal with the details, like the constitution, or organising state structures… These are very important issues, but we can't continue to restrict ourselves to labyrinthine talks about small details while doing nothing about key issues like security, genuine independence for Cyprus and the problem of settlements of Turks. We have to deal with the big issues. We have to do this fast, before it is too late.
At the same time, we are also submerged under the economic crisis. The president of the Republic of Cyprus and his team cannot really focus on the question. We will spend some time preparing and then we will begin the full process after the summer, but that requires a certain time. We can't solve the economic problems overnight, but when we begin achieving and implementing the aid programme, we will be able to shift the focus of our attention towards settling the division of the island. That does not mean that the Cypriot question is not our top priority - it has always been our top priority and will remain so. We will never give up. But it's a question of sequencing.
AE- Do you think that Turkey will favour this kind of negotiation?
AM- Turkey is giving positive signals. It says it is prepared to get involved. But this has always been the case with Turkey. It always says it is in favour of a settlement, but when we come to more specific details, nothing happens. I hope that this time, Turkey will be far more serious and more constructive. It is only in practice that we shall see.
AE- Do you see it easing its line given that it wants to join the EU?
AM- In a rather positive way, we have made a huge investment in Turkey's moves towards joining the EU to act as a catalyst for a solution. It hasn't worked so far, but that doesn't mean that it might not work in the future. (…) We are not asking our partners in the European Union to accept Turkey so that we can solve our own problems.
AE- Should the EU have a bigger role in seeking a solution?
AM- For EU member states and for the EU as an organisation, it is crucial to ensure that the Republic of Cyprus remains a reliable, serious, responsible partner playing a full role and not neutralised. But it is not a question of the EU replacing the United Nations. Cyprus is an EU member state. So, by definition, the EU is one of the key partners to a solution to the problem. We have moved on a long way from the experimenting of a decade ago when the European Commission said to us, just agree among yourselves and we'll make an arrangement. The solution to the Cypriot problem has to comply with EU rules, perhaps with a transition period for putting everything in place, but the idea is to have an ordinary country within the EU rather than a state that is a Trojan horse for a non-member (Turkey, Ed.).
AE- Are you afraid that the young generation is less committed to finding a solution than the older generation?
AM- I have great confidence in the young generations. I think they want a solution, but they want above all else for the solution to be a restoration of normality. They are not prepared to pay the price for what happened in the past. The older generations are far more prepared to accept a regime that is a bit of an exception, but not young people. They will not put up with having their relationships swept aside and blocked by things from the past. When I see young people making these demands, I am very happy - even though that places the barrier very, very high.
AE- Surely that makes it even more complicated to arrive at a solution?
AM- It is true that it complicates things a lot, but who can resent them for that? Would you put up with a system of exemptions, with being told that 30% of parliamentarians have to be Muslim, that you can't get a job in the civil service because there are too many women working there and so you have to be a man to get a job? If we want to build society, we have to open up its horizons rather than close them. We have to keep in mind open societies where people can operate as citizens with the same rights, independent of their ethnic and community origin. (…) It is question of preserving the unity of the Cypriot state. We went a lot further and have agreed to the idea of a federation, but we must somehow keep the idea of citizens.
AE- The island has been divided since 1974. Why hasn't a solution been found yet?
AM- The answer is very clear - there was an invasion by Turkey. You can say that there are Cypriot politicians who are harder than others who are looking for ideas, who are more prepared to make concessions or to live with Turkish Cypriots. All that is true but it doesn't alter the fact that we are experiencing a situation of occupation of part of our territory. If Turkey withdrew from Cyprus, even if nothing was done about the line of demarcation, then it would be a completely different question.
AE- Could a separation between the two parts of Cyprus be envisaged?
AM- That is unimaginable. We will never come round to this idea and we will continue to work for the reunification of the island. That is not an option. The real problem in Cyprus is not one of finding a way to distribute powers between the communities. The real problem, is that Turkey believes it has rights over Cyprus. I cannot accept for there to be two states on the island of Cyprus. The Turkish Cypriots are my compatriots and I must consider and build my future with them, without any discrimination on the personal level and doing everything needed on the collective level. There have to be viable arrangements to allow the two communities to live together, and even side-by-side if needed - but within the framework of reunification of the island.
3. The prime minister of northern Cyprus says 2013 will be crucial for talks
The prime minister of the Turkish Republic of the North of Cyprus (TRNC, which is recognised solely by Turkey), Ýrsen Küçük, says the main obstacle to a solution is the fact that Greek Cypriots don't want to share power. While noting that the methods of negotiation are not working, he told EUROPE that 2013 will be a crucial year for the negotiations because general elections are looming in TRNC in 2014. The interview was carried out in English through an interpreter translating from and into Turkish.
Agence Europe - Is the crisis an opportunity to find a solution for the division of the island?
Ýrsen Küçük - Economic and financial matters should also always be considered separate from the political aspect of the Cyprus problem. The problem of Cyprus, which has half a century of history, is a political issue. Economic problems and political aspects of the Cyprus problem should not be linked.
AE - Why are we still waiting for a solution?
IK - The basic thing is that Greek Cypriots are controlling all of Cyprus; they have all the share of Cyprus for the time being. The main issue is the fact that they don't want to share the governance of the country and they don't want to get into real power sharing with us. Other issues relating to parliament or government are as always problematic. It goes without saying that there are property territory issues but the core of the problem is power sharing and the willingness to share it with us. The agreement reached in 1960 (Ed.: during the independence of Cyprus) was a partnership. It was only possible for three years as the Greek Cypriot part immediately wanted to change the constitution and really diminished the partnership rights of Turkish Cypriots they had with the 1960 treaty - so that's the very essence of the problem in a way which explains why we are still waiting for a solution.
AE - Are you ready to open negotiations again?
IK - For sure it is a priority for us. First of all, the Cyprus problem is conducted under the auspices of the United Nations. The UN has a lot of competence on this matter. The EU is part of the problem so the basis for the settlement talks can only been conducted under the UN. The UN has a lot of established parameters for the resolution of the problem. With regard to what sort of process, it is now evident that the current methodology of the negotiations are not conducive to getting the desired outcome. Meaning that up to now, both leaders have been sitting and studying and discussing even the details of every little aspect which prolong the ongoing talks - that is why everybody should build a new and creative approach. This approach should be more practical. Technical people may provide inputs. And based on their agreements, on their findings and convergences, leaders may ramp up in order to speed up the process. And following this we may also ask the other relevant actors to come in at a later stage. First with Turkish Cypriots and Greek Cypriots under the auspices of the UN and then in any case to go to a wider meeting where guarantor states would be also playing their role.
AE - What could be the role of Turkey in the negotiations?
IK- Both Turkey and Greece made come at a later stage, however if there are any issues that really require some support from Greece and Turkey then maybe they can help leaders to be courageous when it comes to taking some big political decisions..
AE- The more time drags on, will it be more difficult to find a solution?
IK- For sure, that's why 2013 is a very important year we have to make most of 2013 because in 2014 we will have elections so this year is crucial. If a framework can be drawn and designed by the end of the year maybe it can be completed in 2014 which is a big positive step forward.
AE- Are you confident?
IK- If both side generally and politically have the will to do so it may be possible.
AE- Do you think that the question of gas could help reconciliation or would it be another source of conflict?
IK- The gas issue will arise; it's a resource but it is an important issue. The matter of water coming from Turkey is a more realistic factual thing so at least two factors will definitely contribute positively to the economy of the island if used in the right direction. This may contribute to unification if there is cooperation on these aspects.
4. The presence of Turkish Cypriot observers at the European Parliament under debate
Will the European Parliament have two Turkish Cypriot observers in the years following 2014? In a vote on a progress report on Turkey at the EP plenary on 18 April 2013, MEPs rejected amendments tabled by the Greens and Liberals suggesting that Turkish Cypriots should be represented at the EP, but the head of the S&D group, Hannes Swoboda, wants the question to be discussed by the Conference of Presidents. He explains that a solution must be found so that the Turkish Cypriot population can be represented at the EP as observers or in some other form. He wants the president of the European Parliament, Martin Schulz, and the president of the Republic of Cyprus, Nicos Anastasiades, to find a “suitable solution”.
It cannot be accepted any longer that a group of European citizens is not represented at the European Parliament, said Swoboda. Indeed, although the island of Cyprus has six seats at the EP, due to the division of the island all six are held by Greek Cypriot MEPs. The 170,000 European citizens who are Turkish Cypriots, can vote and stand for European elections, but have to travel to the south of the island because there are no voting stations in the north on polling day, which makes it difficult for them to vote.
Northern Cypriots would like to have better representation in this way. Without going as far as having the right to vote in the plenary, several parliamentarians from northern Cyprus would like to have their representatives, chosen from the TRNC assembly, to be able to speak more easily than at present and to participate in EP committees. They say that although they accepted the Annan Plan, Turkish Cypriots are being “punished for saying yes”, and that the Greek Cypriots, voted in by the whole of the island, do not represent their interests. Making it clear that the presence of these observers would not amount to recognition of TRNC, the Turkish Cypriot parliamentarians point out that TRNC has observers at the Council of Europe. They also point out that fewer Turkish Cypriots these days are in favour of the EU and that if they remain isolated in the EU, then they risk turning away from the old continent of Europe and moving closer to Turkey.
The prime minister of TRNC, Ýrsen Küçük, says that if the European Parliament is capable of allowing the participation of the northern part of Cyprus, then his government will do everything necessary to hold European elections at the same time as the TRNC general elections in 2014, “with the status of observer or the model that is found”.
The Republic of Cyprus is sceptical
The Republic of Cyprus is suspicious. The permanent secretary of the foreign ministry, Andreas Mavroyannis, says that from a legal viewpoint, the situation is very clear. Cyprus is an EU member state, it organises European elections and all Cypriot citizens, whether Greek, Turkish or others, have the right to vote in the elections and to stand as candidates. He said he didn't see what more could be done and didn't understand why something else needed to be added that does not mesh with the way the EU functions - simply to please an illegal regime. Mavroyannis said it was not about a “presence” or “the voice of Turkish Cypriots”, but rather about “representation” of an illegal regime, and warned that if people start talking about finding a way to do a little more legally, then that can be discussed, but separate representation of a body condemned as illegal by the United Nations cannot be accepted. He said that if that were forced on Cyprus, then it would immediately appeal to the European Court of Justice and was 100% certain of winning.
The European Commission, pointing out that this is a decision for the European Parliament, says that the Commission is in favour of measures aimed at increasing confidence and anchoring the Turkish Cypriot community closely to the European Union.
Hannes Swoboda's request has been received at the offices of the president of the European Parliament, but it is too early to say when it will be put on the agenda of the Conference of Presidents, explained an EP spokesperson to EUROPE.