The eurozone after Cyprus. Philip Suttle, the chief economist at the IIF (Institute of International Finance) has been the first, as far as I'm aware, to state explicitly that Cyprus should devalue its currency - which would imply its leaving the eurozone. Without doing so, he believes, Cyprus continues to pay the costs linked to the euro - without benefitting from the advantages. What is missing from Mr Suttle's assertion (and from those of the people sharing his opinion) is consideration of the disadvantages and contraindications that are implicit in any exit from the euro. It is therefore logical that reactions to Mr Suttle's thesis particularly involve question marks. For example - “It seems simple, leaving the euro… but why then do we always put the brakes on as soon as an exit like this is mentioned?”, or “It is difficult to see the relationship between the euro and the bad management of the banks that are facing bankruptcy. And how would an exit from the euro help these banks?” It can be seen that the perplexities refer once more to the impression that the interest of the banks prevails and determines the decisions (see this column in yesterday's EUROPE). Yet sometimes what is called into question is the possibility in itself that a single currency might function between countries whose economic decisions are radically different. According to this thesis, the German currency would have had to appreciate by 50% in the face of the currencies of the South, and after Cyprus the crisis of Slovenia has now been announced - it is the doctrine of the eurozone that raises doubts. The very method of assessment has been contested - GDP is apparently not the good instrument. By contrast, the discipline that the EU is in the middle of defining in order to manage banking activity is not often mentioned - yet it is particularly crucial and is making progress. Nonetheless, the timeframes for its application demand time…
Turkey - clarification of implied objectives. Good news arrived from Ankara during the Easter break. I'm talking about the appeasement of relations between the Turks and the Kurds who live in Turkey. There has been widespread comment from the international press on the truce that was announced. All military action is abolished (or simply suspended?) and the armed forces from Kurdistan will withdraw from Turkish territory. It is all the more significant that the peacemaking started when the parliamentary majority and government has kept nothing secular (theoretically, the Turkish Republic is defined like this) and affirm their Muslim nature. The Kurds, as we know, have been scattered throughout Iran, Iraq, Syria and Turkey since the Treaty of Lausanne in 1923, and the Turkish part (15 million people) does not claim independence but regional autonomy - which has to be defined. The new development is therefore the end, theoretically, of an armed conflict that has nonetheless claimed 45,000 lives in 30 years.
A few observers who go deeper than appearances place this development within the Oumma - in other words the community of Muslim believers of all tendencies, of which the Kurds are part. Yet when one thinks how far the worst conflicts have currently gone between Muslims of different tendencies - from the most fanatical to the most open - one can understand the international weight that a Turkey which oversteps this stage would have and the leading role that it will play in this context.
From the European point of view, the developments mentioned above imply both (1) strengthening the links and cooperation between the EU and Turkey; (2) the absurdity of keeping the fiction alive of Turkey joining the EU.
The developments therefore confirm what this column has long upheld. One might wonder if Turkey might not one day be the sixth of the BRICs - after Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.
Europe can't forget its heritage. Europe - or at least some European countries like Belgium - has officially abandoned its traditional festivals. For schools, the traditional festivals of Easter, Christmas, All Saints and Carnival are over. These denominations have been judged outdated and have been replaced in order to determine the school holidays by autumn, winter, rest and spring leave (or holidays). Rest leave is remarkable - as if the objective of the other holidays was fatigue.
Would it seem that Europe is ashamed of its festivals and traditions? The bishop of Namur, André Léonard, has defined these innovations as curious and particularly unrealistic. He thinks that people, and especially children, will continue to talk of Christmas holidays, Easter holidays and so on. He has explained: “If one wants to erase the Christian heritage, watch out for our museums, for the musical repertoire… Reforms of the calendar will have the same fate as the Republican calendar in France with its Messidors and Vendémiaires.
(FR/transl.fl)