Brussels, 15/03/2013 (Agence Europe) - Milk production rose by 0.6% in the EU in 2012 to 152.1 million tonnes, says the European Commission in a report on the short-term prospects for the agricultural market, published on 13 March 2013 (see above article on meat production). Milk production is expected to continue to rise, but at a slower rate, for the next two years.
Poland, Germany, Denmark and Hungary are the main milk producers where a rise is expected, with falls expected in Ireland, France, Italy and the United Kingdom. The trend is expected to continue in 2013 and 2014, but at a slower rate (+0.4% in 2013 and +0.5% in 2014). The average yield per dairy cow rose by 1.7% in 2012 to 6,584 kg per dairy cow. This rise will exceed the average fall in the number of dairy cows (-1.1%).
The report explains that production forecasts for 2012 and 2013 reflect the impact of the adverse weather conditions. Drought had a negative impact on cereal yields in 2012, sending prices spiralling, but also led to slower grass growth. The expected fall in milk production in some regions is due to the reduction in fodder available, higher feed prices and the fall in milk prices on 2011. Production is expected to increase slightly in 2014. The price of milk fell in the first five months of 2012 due to increased supply, but picked up in the second half of the year.
Dairy product consumption. In 2012, dairy product prices remained below the 2011 level. In the first three months of 2013, they were higher than they were at the end of 2012. Demand for cheese remains strong, up 1.3% on 2012, despite the economic crisis. This positive trend is expected to continue over the next two years, but at a slower rate. The production of fresh milk products rose by 0.7%, but fermented milk production fell by 0.4%. In 2013 and 2014, fresh dairy production is likely to continue to rise, but slower than before.
Industrial agri-food production. In 2012, powdered whole milk production was down 2.6% on 2011 and the trend is expected to continue in 2013 and 2014. In 2013, powdered whole milk production will be affected by low availability in the EU with milk being turned instead into other products, like cheese and cream. Skimmed milk powder rose again in 2012, by 7.2%, but is expected to fall in 2013 (by 0.1% on 2012) due to limited supplies as milk is drunk fresh or turned into cheese and stocks are low. Production is expected to pick up slightly in 2014. Intervention stocks were full in 2009, but some of this went to the poor in 2012.
After a 4.3% rise in 2012, butter and butter oil production are expected to fall over the next two years. (LC/transl.fl)