Brussels, 15/03/2013 (Agence Europe) - In 2013, total meat production in the EU is expected to contract by 0.7% to 43.5 million tonnes, but then rise again in 2014, says the European Commission in a report on short-term future prospects for agricultural markets, published on 11 March 2013.
Pork and beef production is expected to fall in 2013, but poultry will rise by 1.5%. The cost of animal feed is the main reason for these develoments, although the high feed prices may fall due to higher yields of some crops, states the Commission.
The fall in meat production will lead to a 8% fall in exports and a slight rise in meat imports (by 0.9%). Total meat consumption in the EU is not expected to change much this year, averaging 81.9 kilogrammes per inhabitant, but meat production is expected to rise in 2014 by 0.4% if the economy picks up as expected, says the Commission. Beef and pork will be the main beneficiaries and poultry is likely to fall (by 0.7%), the first fall in recent years. Trade within and outside the EU will increase, with imports rising by 2.3% and exports by 2.6%. Meat consumption is expected to rise by 0.3% to 82 kg per inhabitant per year.
Slowdown in falling cattle numbers. After a sharp decline, 4%, in 2012, beef production will decrease at a slower rate (-0.5%) in 2013. Herds have shrunk slightly in France (-0.5%) and Germany (-0.2%) but have increased by 0.4% in Poland. Beef production is expected to increase, however, in 2014 by some 1.5%. When it comes to trade, exports might be constrained by high prices, made worse in 2014 by unfavourable exchange rates, but beef imports into the EU are expected to increase in both 2013 and 2014.
Pork production in the EU is expected to fall by 2% in 2013 and sow numbers decrease (down 3.2% in December 2012, following a 3.6% fall in December 2011). After two years in a row of decreased production, pork is expected to pick up by 0.9% in 2014. Matching the falls in production, exports are expected to shrink by some 14% in 2013, but pick up slightly in 2014. European pork imports will remain marginal, between 16,000 and 17,000 tonnes a year in 2013 and pork consumption per inhabitant is expected to average some 40 kg. In 2012, farmers' profit margins were reduced due to high feed prices and this is expected to continue in 2013.
Poultry production has been picking up for a few years now, up 4.5% in 2010 and around the 2% mark in 2011, 2012 and 2013, but 2014 will see a reversal of this trend, with pork and beef production rising at the expense of poultry, which is expected to fall by 0.7%. Poultry meat exports will rise by 1.2% in 2013 but fall by 0.6% in 2014, with imports falling by 2.4% in 2013 and increasing by 0.4% in 2014.
Sheep and goat herds are continuing to decline, but slower than in recent years (-0.3% compared with the previous -1.9%), and production is expected to decline by 1.6% in 2013 and 3.5% in 2014. Sheep and goat meat imports are expected to increase by 4% in 2013. Imports totalled 27,000 tonnes in 2013, and are expected to fall by 4,000 tonnes in 2014, with consumption remaining at the 2.1 kg mark per inhabitant per year. (LC/transl.fl)