World-wide consumption of wine on up again. According to the consultancy IWSR (International Wine and Spirit Research) and the statistics of the Vinexpo trade fair, the demand for wine in the world is set to be back on the up, to the tune of +5.3% between 2012 and 2016, following modest growth (+2.8%) recorded between 2007 and 2011. The progress expected in terms of value is nearly 9% higher over the next five years, with a leap of 10% in the consumption of the dearest bottles (over $10). This shot in the arm is expected to allow global consumption to get back up to the levels it reached in the early 2000s. The United States is expected to remain at the top of the table in five years' time and “for a long time” thereafter, followed by Germany, which moves up from fourth to second place, ahead of France, Italy and China. In general, red wine remains the consumers' favourite, as it will continue to represent one out of every two bottles with a sales volume of 35 billion bottles forecast up to 2016. Demand for red wine is expected to increase by 9% by 2016, compared to 2.7% for white. Rosé wine, which is still very much in fashion but which represents just under 10% of consumption, is expected to grow by 7.5% by 2016. China is largely responsible for the success of red wines, which go particularly well with Chinese cuisine. In spite of this, it is in fact sparkling wines, particularly champagne, which will see the most growth. The consumption of sparkling wines is likely to increase by 8.5% over the period 2012-2016, at a pace twice that registered for the period 2007-2011. Four countries are responsible for this acceleration: Germany, France, Russia and the United States, countries historically fond of champagne. Across all wines, the champions in the growth of global consumption will be China (+40%), the United States, Russia and Australia. It is worth pointing out that China also has the particularity of buying wine for speculative purposes rather than the consumption, especially the “grands vins” of Bordeaux and Burgundy. Another underlying trend is a 20% drop in the consumption of wine in Spain over the last five years. This downward trend is expected to continue, but in considerably lesser proportions. In France and Italy, demand is expected to drop by 2.9% and 5% respectively. Although France is still the biggest exporter of wines in the world, by some distance and across all categories, with an increase in its overseas sales of +5.24% to €7.4 billion between 2007 and 2011, Italy is shaping up to be a serious rival. The extraordinary 53% leap in Italian exports over the last five years has closed the gap with France by 58% to 39% currently. As regards spirits, global growth is expected to halve between now and 2016. After an increase in value of 43% in the last five years, growth is expected to be just 23%. This downturn is related to a drop in the consumption of major local spirits such as China's Baiju (a spirit which is obtained by distilling wines produced from cereals), Vinexpo stresses. The consumption of vodka, still the number one alcohol in the world but currently in a slump, is expected to pick up. (IL/transl.fl)