Brussels, 08/11/2012 (Agence Europe) - The situation on the labour market in the EU will get even worse in 2013. At most, a slight rise in employment levels can be hoped for in 2014 however this will not be enough to bring unemployment rates down to below 11.7%. The autumn economic forecasts presented by the European Commission on Wednesday 7 November (see EUROPE 10725) subsequently confirm that the moderate economic recovery forecast for 2013 will not involve any short-term improvements for around 25 million men and women currently unemployed in the 27 member states of the EU.
The Commission report does not restrict itself to making simple observations. After providing a detailed analysis of the repercussions from the economic and financial crisis on the European labour market, the Commission warns that adjustments over the next few years will be necessary in most member states. What adjustments and what member states are mentioned? The report only mentions two countries as examples: Germany and Austria. Unsurprisingly, these are the two countries at the top of the class most often mentioned by the Commission. The former, for its ability to make adjustments on the labour market through wage moderation and working hours in relation to what is happening in the economic situation. The latter, for its programmes deemed efficient in adapting labour market supply and demand, particularly with regard to young people whose unemployment rates since the beginning of the crisis in the rest of Europe have increased tenfold.
The Commission is counting on 0.4% growth in GDP throughout the EU in 2013, followed by 1.6% growth in 2014. This recovery, however, will not create more jobs or reduce the dole queues in member states. Quite the reverse, Europeans will have to prepare for a new and sad record next year, with unemployment set to rise to a level of almost 12%. The reason for this is that the increase in unemployment since 2008 is due to a cyclical economic disturbance. Long-term and youth employment is both a reflection of labour market inertia and the current inability of labour markets to guarantee a balance between supply and demand. This has led to the Commission's constant refrain, included in its report on economic forecasts, that far-reaching structural reforms are necessary. The report concludes that, “in the absence of successful adjustment and labour market reforms the implied rising labour market mismatch might induce a structurally higher unemployment rate in the future”. (JK/trans/fl)