Brussels, 27/08/2012 (Agence Europe) - A recent European Commission report shows that production of olive oil between now and 2020 should fall in Italy and Greece, and remain stable in Spain. But stocks of olive oil in Spain should increase by 28% between 2011 and 2020.
Average olive oil production in the EU has risen to 2.2 million tonnes over recent years, representing around 73% of world production, according to the “Economic analysis of the olive sector” report. Spain, Italy and Greece account for about 97% of EU olive oil production, with Spain producing approximately 62% of this amount. In terms of oil quality, in 2009 Spain produced 35% extra virgin oil, 32% virgin oil and 33% lampant oil. The figures for Italy are respectively 59%, 18% and 24%.
Spain. During the marketing year 2011/2012 the production of olive oil in Spain is expected to reach 1.6 million tonnes, of which irrigated olive plantations would provide around 52%. The contribution of irrigated olive plantations to the total production of olives has gradually increased over recent years, from 33% in 2004 to 52% in 2011. The projection for 2020 shows that production could reach 1.433 million tonnes of olive oil in a low-yield season and 1.86 million tonnes for a high-yield season. The irrigated land area could increase by 90,000 hectares (from 681,000 in 2011 to 771,000 hectares by 2020) whereas non-irrigated land could decrease by around 20,000 hectares (from 1.78 million hectares in 2011 to 1.76 million hectares by 2020).
According to another Commission report on the 2012-2020, outlook for the olive oil sector in Spain, Italy and Greece, olive oil consumption in Spain is expected to remain stable and reach 632,000 tonnes by 2020. Spanish exports are expected to increase from 840,000 tonnes in 2011 to 1.047 million tonnes in 2020 (while imports are expected to remain stable - between 40,000 and 50,000 tonnes). Olive oil stocks in Spain are expected to increase by 635,000 tonnes at the end of the marketing year 2011/2012 to 881,000 tonnes at the end of the marketing year 2020/2021.
Italy. Land dedicated to olive oil production is expected to remain stable until 2020, at around 1.14 million hectares. Yields in Italy are expected to decrease from 459 kg of oil per hectare in 2011 to 418 kg in 2011. In fact production in Italy is expected to fall from 538 million tonnes to 477 million tonnes between 2011 and 2020. National consumption is also expected to be in decline (620,000 tonnes in 2020, as opposed to 660,000 tonnes in 2011). Italy is expected to remain a big net importer of olive oil, even if the trade deficit is expected to be lower by 2020. Imports are expected to come close to 500,000 tonnes per year between 2011 and 2020. Italian olive oil exports are expected to continue to progress to reach 360,000 tonnes in 2020. The Commission does not expect great imbalances on the Italian olive oil market (keeping the same level of stocks).
Greece. The area of land planted with olive trees is expected to increase (738,000 hectares in 2007 to 767,000 hectares in 2020) but yields are expected to decline. Thus Greek olive oil production is expected to decrease from 310,000 tonnes in 2011 to 270,000 tonnes in 2020. National consumption is also expected to fall (from 228,000 tonnes in 2011 to 202,000 tonnes in 2020). The Commission is counting on a drop in Greek exports and on a small deficit of 11,000 tonnes per year (representing 4% of production). (LC/transl.fl)