Important news. The return of our newsletter after a very short summer break has no doubt been greeted by readers with some relief: since last week, they have been able to get daily news about European events explaining what is happening coolly, accurately and clearly (citing sources), describing events as they happen without sensationalism and examining issues ignored by other news outlets.
During the month of August, we were regaled with floods of inaccurate, contradictory news from other sources, particularly about hot potatoes like the euro and the economy. Comments by politicians, leaked documents and plans have been wrongly presented as faits accomplis. Politicians' comments naturally diverged, hence the contradictory spectacular headlines announcing the end of the euro one day and the opposite the next. This systematic search for sensational headlines feeds financial speculation, to the detriment of eurozone stability.
These wild swings in news are usually elaborations on bare slithers of opinion or are quite frankly made up, based very loosely on a vague comment by the president of the European Central Bank, which can be interpreted in a myriad different ways and can generate artificial swings on the money markets, based on fiction rather than fact. Speculators are laughing all the way to the bank...
The past few weeks should have been used to prepare for decisions and measures to be announced over the next few weeks, and the money market highs and lows over the summer were no more than a speculative bubble.
Preparing for Greece to leave the euro. Greece is a special case. The Troika (of European Commission, ECB and IMF) published a press release after the first part of its fact-finding mission in Athens. It started, as usual, with generalities, welcoming productive talks with the Greek authorities, which caused most news media to announce that Greece's hard work was paying off, although the main body of the press release demanded that Greece respect and consolidate its commitments, in effect rejecting the country's call for more time. The final decisions have been postponed until September for good reason, but I still believe that Greece will inevitably end up leaving the eurozone and this would be good for Greece itself. Such a move would be so complicated that it must be carefully prepared - and even denied. I will be returning to this, explaining why banks have no grounds for complaining about any financial losses they may suffer.
Meanderings of the Arab Spring. Foreign affairs are the second hot potato for the European Union. There is no need to panic over the ups and downs of Arab Spring countries and their neighbours. It takes time and effort to introduce freedom and democracy, and the EU should avoid the temptation to intervene directly or to lecture them. Respecting these countries' choices (even if they are not what the EU would have chosen) does not mean one does not care. It is clear that the EU's attitude and the connections it builds with these countries will be crucial for their future, particularly in terms of religious freedom and women's rights, for example. Tunisia replacing sexual equality with 'complementary roles' (business as usual) would be unfortunate in the only country where freedom has been introduced. Any general agreement must be based on fundamental equality - not just for religious freedom, but also for the free movement of individuals.
It is clear that the EU's agreements would be country-by-country. The of EuroMed unity is an empty slogan, but it can be useful in a few specific areas which are more general in nature, for example a coordinated effort among countries bordering on the Mediterranean to do more to protect the environment.
Current events require a few comments about Egypt and Syria.
Events in Egypt. The recent, unexpected, changes in the Egyptian leadership have been wrongly interpreted. Reporters in the country have explained the events in detail, but ignored the true significance of them. President Mohammed Mursi may have virtually removed a number of generals by acting as true head of state, but the military has not really been swept aside. Are the Muslim Brotherhood really controlling the country's foreign affairs and undermining the Camp David agreements that have governed Egypt's relations with Israel since 1979? Not at all, the way I see it. The Camp David agreements are being respected and this is crucial for peace in the Middle East.
President Mursi will deal with these domestic affairs as he sees fit, introducing a new constitution and holding a series of referendums and new elections. The new Egypt will change in the way its people want it to. This is to be expected. Egypt will be on decidedly frosty terms with Egypt, but will respect the Camp David agreements because otherwise the United States would cease to support the Egyptian Army, to the tune of one to three billion dollars a year, along with aid to the Egyptian government (another billion dollars), because the US will not finance an army that attacks one of its allies. The Egyptian Army has clamped down mercilessly on gangs that have attacked it in the Sinai Desert. Egyptian-Israeli economic cooperation will no doubt melt away, along with energy exports. Time will tell which country will come off the worst for it.
In terms of relations with the EU, Egypt is free to choose and has decided to distance itself from the Arab Spring nations.
EU impotence in Syria. The EU is mostly absent from the true Mediterranean tragedy - the war in Syria. Matters are discussed by EU bodies, but this is tittle-tattle for there is no official EU position or EU action. France has got involved because it currently chairs the UN Security Council, but this is as an isolated country rather than as a member of the EU.
We are, of course, entitled to some clarity from Catherine Ashton, who says she is concerned at what is happening and says the EU fully supports the search for a peaceful solution. No doubt people on the ground are paying attention to her comments. (FR/transl.fl)