Developments still sometimes uncertain. Official European positions regarding the Arab spring are still obviously supportive and often enthusiastic. The Community authorities and those of the member states have stepped up their support for the countries involved and are significantly increasing their visits to these countries and contacts with them. Nonetheless, a number of concerns and questions also come to the fore in a less explicit way: what developments will take place in the countries on the southern banks of the Mediterranean that are now free? And what should be said with regard to countries that have changed but which have at the same time kept their previous regimes in place? We also have to ask to what point the lines adopted by certain European governments are entirely sincere or being partly dictated by national interests. Aspects that are less clear, including the problems, should also be looked at objectively. The term “revolution” applied to these countries has sometimes been contested. In Tunisia, it is a coalition of the worthy having sometimes quite divergent positions that has taken power. In Egypt, the armed forces are a decisive factor and in Libya, NATO has proved decisive.
The organisation of elections and election results in all of these countries cannot be predicted. What role should be given to the Islamic organisations which are striving to dispel concerns about them by affirming their support for democratic principles? Ongoing developments are still uncertain and sometimes provoke a number of concerns. The situations differ from one country to the next.
Between the military and the Muslim Brotherhood. In Egypt the task of preparing the new draft constitution is in practice in the hands of the armed forces in liaison with the Muslim Brotherhood. The former intends to preserve the principle of a presidential constitution and the latter would like to see respect for Islamic principles included within it. Fortunately, the army is aware that it is no longer able to impose its rule by force on the young people who demonstrate. In reality, it appears increasingly difficult to predict changes in public opinion with regard to agreements with Israel, and the military is aware that their power is linked to US funding (even if this is not spoken about). Fortunately, Egyptians appear united on one point: the determination to protect and defend everything related to Egypt's civilisation for the last few thousand years, humanity's heritage of which the Egyptians are the keepers.
Arms control and managing financial resources. The situation in Libya is more complex. The very legitimacy of the coalition's intervention has sometimes been controversial because, according to some interpretations, NATO has largely gone beyond what the UN authorised. According to a number of different sources, the cruelty and killings inflicted by the insurgents could be similar to those inflicted by Colonel Gaddafi's forces or are in danger of becoming so. Arms proliferation will pose or is already posing similar problems on both sides. The same kinds of weapons are sometimes mixed up, of Russian, French or other origin, and those who possess them do not always appear prepared to accept any arms control, even though they sometimes appear unable to control these arms themselves. Confusion at a political level could occur and would prove dangerous because the National Transition Council (NTC), which is largely recognised at an international level, brings together political forces that are far from being homogenous or compatible with each other. Financial reserves have been scattered among the banks throughout the world by the sinister Colonel and will be as difficult a subject to manage as arms control.
Tunisian immigrants. In Tunisia, the problem of illegal immigrants has become glaring because the agreements between Italy and Tunisia have been blown apart. In recent weeks, more than 2,000 illegal immigrants have arrived on the island of Lampedusa. Last week they protested against their detention on this small island and serious incidents have occurred between them and the local population. By way of last April's agreements, Italy provided Tunisia with surveillance ships and other instruments and the Tunisian authorities made a commitment to controlling those leaving its shores, agreeing to take back illegal immigrants. Since the beginning of August, this arrangement has no longer worked. The immigrants can no longer claim the right of asylum because in their country they are now free and no longer subject to any threat. Before the April agreement, illegal Tunisian immigrants in Lampedusa provoked stricter border controls between France and Italy when they went to France. This is what is behind the current difficulties being experienced in the Schengen system. The Schengen treaty is under pressure and with it an essential aspect of European construction. It is understandable that both Rome and Paris are both determined to prevent any similar risk occurring in the future.
This summary seeks to provide a starting point for a comprehensive overview that aims to clarify the prospects and difficulties involved in the Arab spring.
(FR/trans.fl)