EU accession no longer envisaged. There will be no discoveries in this column about the transformation of Turkey's role at an international level. Different branches of the media have provided many reports on this development. My objective is more modest and consists of seeking to evaluate the repercussions that this development will have on relations between Ankara and the EU. Yesterday I highlighted the key point: Turkey has in practice given up on its objective of joining the EU. This column has always said that this objective was mistaken, that Turkey is an essentially Asian country, that its accession would be impossible, and so on and so forth. The evolution currently unfolding therefore does not come as a surprise to me. It is the logical outcome of an unreasonable project that would have cost the EU its European character and would have made Community policies unmanageable. It would also have introduced problems into Europe that have nothing to do with it (such as the Kurdish problem and several others).
Ankara's abandonment of considering its priority political objective being to join the EU also helps to remove a misunderstanding. Misgivings about its candidacy were never anti-Turkish - I have great admiration for Turkey, its history, the spirit of its people and its intellectual value. Indeed it is the right time to emphasise this because from now on the EU and Turkey will be confronting each other on a number of sensitive issues and will have to tackle a number of sometimes considerable differences between them.
Drastic differences. The first question involves the factors that suggest Turkey itself no longer believes in accession. The president of the republic announced that his country would abandon this objective if a single EU country opposed it. Moreover, it is quite well known that a certain country does oppose its accession - France. Mr Sarkozy has declared this overtly on a number of occasions. Different factors, that are at first glance minor but which in fact speaks volumes, explain the recent watershed: (a) Turkey's warning against Cyprus soon holding the presidency of the Council of the EU (this is programmed for the second half of 2012); (b) opposition to Cypriot drilling for natural gas in the maritime zone close to the Turkish occupied part of Cyprus, and Turkey's intention to begin oil exploration in what it considers as its own exclusive economic zone (warships may even be on the agenda). These divergences imply that Ankara does not regard the Turkish zone of the island of Cyprus as part of the Cypriot Republic (they have not ruled out the two state formula) while Community players consider that the presence of the Turkish army in northern Cyprus represents an abusive occupation of part of EU territory. The dispute is political (the Turkish deputy prime minister, Beºir Atalay, has suggested that there is a possibility that relations with the EU could be frozen) but there are important economic stakes at play too because there are significant gas reserves there as well. There is also an additional complication: Israel is participating in drilling with Cyprus and we are well aware of the current state of relations between Turkey and Israel…
A major autonomous power. In addition to the worrying concerns mentioned above, Turkey is playing its autonomous role to the full in its relations with Arab countries, particularly those in the Mediterranean area. The visit by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoðan to countries involved in the Arab spring was triumphant. In Egypt he was welcomed as a “new Arab hero”. This is a rather bold image from a historic point of view because it was through their struggle against the Ottoman Empire that the Arabs found their freedom and independence. With regard to recent events, Turkey initially moved quite cautiously, particularly in Libya where it hesitated before ultimately supporting the rebels. Nonetheless, uncertainties were overcome and now Turkey represents a model: it supports the Arab countries (including Palestine), it is a harsh critic of Israel (an obstacle to peace) and is certainly not averse to a touch of rhetoric when it says “a child that cries in Gaza touches the heart of every single mother in Ankara”. Everything is part of preparations for the future: in Cairo, Mr Erdogan was accompanied by six ministers and 175 businessmen, and the number of business deals has been doubled. Turkey's presence in this region is that of a major autonomous power, and rightly so if we take into account the progress that it has made both at political and economic levels. It aspires to become a world power and I anticipate that joining the Brics countries (alongside China, Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa) would not be enough to satisfy its ambitions.
A difficult task. In this new context, Turkey must work out its future relations with the EU. This is a complicated task for both parties because Turkey is already in a customs union with the EU and will also have quite a number of demands to make before giving up what it has been promised. It is in a strong position in a number of complex areas - for example the transiting of oil through its territory. Nonetheless, Turkey is already acting as an autonomous power with a leading role to play in the world. (FR/transl.fl)