Shake-up in Italy is difficult but essential. The Italian problem is far from being solved. The programme being discussed in Rome does not guarantee in any way (in the current debates) that the budget deficit will be eradicated within two years as is necessary. Is it therefore necessary to resign ourselves to the idea that the euro project is on the point of collapse? Efforts still required in Italy are considerable but do not in any way justify the implosion of the eurozone. Positive results, however, pre-suppose a series of conditions that will be difficult to set in place. It will be necessary for political leaders to think long and hard about the stakes at play; the public will need to be appropriately informed; journalists and commentators will have to refrain a little from their urge to dig up sensational news stories (which, by definition, is particularly negative) and elected representatives have to cease thinking that their re-election is an absolute priority.
Two conditions are essential if this shake-up is going to be put into practice: the public must understand the importance and the scale of current dangers; European political forces as a whole must firmly oppose the speculators reaping numerous benefits from the crisis, who profit from it in a scandalous and sometimes ignoble way. The younger generation may be able to make a powerful contribution to this.
The time for misunderstandings? It is often pointed out throughout the Union that the generations born when European unity was already a reality do not sufficiently understand the significance of this prodigious enterprise, which brought people together who previously tore each other apart in the worst conflict that humanity has ever experienced. European construction has been through some difficult times and there have been deep divergences between member states. The different rounds of EU enlargement have been accompanied by complicated situations but the European project has always been able to overcome any obstacles in its way. Some pundits think that the generation that grew up with European unity already largely accomplished has not understood the deep significance of this enterprise. The generation of the master builders (Spinelli, Delors, Kohl, Mitterrand, Schröder, Giscard d'Estaing, etc) has been followed by the generation that has found the edifice solidly erected and which considers this as quite normal and a definitive accomplishment. An armed conflict between France and Germany is now totally unimaginable, as is the possibility of an invasion of Poland or Austria. We consider these possible scenarios as totally absurd. Bolstered by these certainties, there is an inability among part of the current generation that is now in the saddle to understand the necessity of moving forward. Part of this generation has forgotten the historical warnings about the fragility of the benefits that have now been accomplished. Nothing can ever be described as a definitive accomplishment for man and it is necessary to continually move forward in order for man to remain standing.
A role for the Erasmus generation? If part of the generation that currently is responsible for European construction appears to have forgotten the original driving force behind European construction, we need to trust the younger generation which is following in its footsteps and which, according to some observers within it, provides new reasons not to lose hope (this includes one of my journalist colleagues, Beppe Severgnini, who has become its spokesman in Italy). The potential of the Erasmus Programme generation needs to be highlighted, which took shape within the context of the European education area sought and launched by Jacques Delors. Groups of young people in all European countries have studied together and are now gradually assuming the functions of command and could, according to Severgnini (who participated in this programme), bring the currently weary EU “the enthusiasm in which they met, lived, travelled, tasted and loved Europe together”. According to Mr Severgnini, this Erasmus generation “will be able to defend Europe and produce some rather nice surprises”.
Breadth of progress possible if… over the next few days Italy manages to find its reason again, as well as the essential impetus required. If this happens, overall prospects in the whole of the eurozone will become quite positive. It should not be forgotten that if current difficulties are overcome, the eurozone will immediately experience a series of developments already included in the calendar and which will be able to change its current perspectives. These mainly include:
(a) a compromise between the Parliament and Council on the six rules defining how the eurozone management mechanisms function. Discussions between the two institutions on possible formulas to help overcome current differences are ongoing and optimism appears justified;
(b) presentation by Mr Van Rompuy (in liaison with Mr Barroso and Mr Juncker) of the proposal on reforming the way the eurozone operates (on which Germany and France have already put forward a common project);
(c) publication by the Commission of its document on issuing eurobonds, possibly resulting from a proposal (which will obviously retain the operating objectives and criteria previously defined by the father of the project, Jacques Delors) ;
(d) possibility of Germany renouncing its current opposition to eurobonds if economic government of the eurozone is put into practice and operates efficiently;
(e) possible relaunch of the Tobin tax, retained in the Franco-German document in view of the forthcoming debate at the G20.
Other developments could also be added to this list.
Italian responsibility. This is our summary of possible developments. For the time being, everything depends on the results of the most recent ongoing debates in Rome on the contents of the Italian recovery plan. In the absence of a convincing result on this subject, everything could be under threat. We will know more about this soon.
(F.R./transl.fl)