What more evidence is needed to prove that our publication is essential for developing a comprehensive overview of European affairs? Here is more: the European Council last Thursday and Friday did not produce much of an echo. The media reported on one or other of the different issues - the Greek dossier, the new president of the European Central Bank, or amendments to how the Schengen area is managed. Our publication, however, not only presented an overview of the results and what they meant (with specific thematic analysis) but also an absolutely exclusive report on the reactions of the different heads of state and government (which frequently diverged). Today, I would like to add a few more comments.
Discoveries. First surprise: several pundits affirm (now they are saying it but not before) that the only possible way of managing the eurozone efficiently is through strengthening the Community nature of the institutions managing it. We subsequently find ourselves on the federalist battlefield with the Altiero Spinelli project, Mr Trichet's European finance minister initiative and other more demarcated projects such as eurobonds, without going into the other projects that have already been agreed at a conceptual level - the necessary balance between the monetary and economic dimensions of EMU, an issue that Jacques Delors unearthed so many years ago. There is nothing really new but a number of conversions have taken place, as well as the discovery of some very old truths …
Socialists under represented and EPP dominant. Some observers have underlined the extent to which the left was under represented at the summit. One journalist proceeded to make a number of different calculations - “around the table, the centre-right and right dominated and there were only four socialists out of 27”. Two of them, Mr Zapatero and Mr Papandreou may soon find themselves being shown the door, like Gordon Brown and José Socrates before them. In the journalist's eyes, last week's summit “looked like an EPP Congress - 17 heads of state and government out of 27, plus Herman Van Rompuy and José Manuel Barroso”. The EPP also has a majority at the European Parliament and clearly dominates the European Commission. It is with these calculations that our journalist colleague explained why, faced with the austerity policy advocated by the summit, the alternative put forward by the socialists did not have much weight.
These observations require three different comments: (a) both governments and MEPs are democratically elected, it is the people themselves that have chosen them; (b) in both Greece and Portugal (and partly in Ireland), austerity programmes have been defined by socialist governments. At the Greek parliament (which has recently been having its say) the socialists hold the majority;( c) several participants at the summit highlighted the demand to relaunch the economy and Mr Barroso indicated that the Commission intended to increase its support to Greece to achieve this goal.
It would be more useful to attempt to understand why, over a given period, most people voted in one way rather than in another, instead of bleating about the choices they have made.
Shortcomings and qualities of the Greek people. Some observers are becoming much harsher in the tone that they have adopted towards Greece (I will just quote one random example) - “A huge financial chasm has been discovered in Greece, created by the anarchy of public spending and cooking the books. Negligence by the Greek government matched with anarchy of public spending and cooking the books. Negligence by the government matched, amongst its citizens, with general tax evasion of unprecedented proportions.” It was, however, added that “European negligence concealed and dismissed the Greek scandal like dust under the carpet”. At the same time, many special envoys in Athens (for whom the Greek people were a bit of a discovery) took back a largely sympathetic view of the Greek mindset and lifestyle, which is largely based on solidarity and their sense of family.
Is it possible to reconcile these two aspects - public fraud and individual solidarity - to develop a behavioural approach compatible with Greece participating in the eurozone? I would like to highlight the results (summarised in EUROPE 10399) of an analysis of the measures that are crucial if Greece is going to be able to remain in the eurozone: citizens need to get used to paying taxes; the number of civil servants needs to be cut; tax breaks enjoyed by the ship-owners need to be scrapped; the church real estate sector needs to be taxed; and military spending needs to be heavily curtailed. If this is not forthcoming, the austerity programme will have no sustainable effect.
I will return to these essential aspects in this column tomorrow. (F.R./transl.fl)