Indifference. What symptom would indicate that the Arab spring has been successful? I think that the following example provides a clue: the fact that there has been no response by young people in Tunisia and elsewhere to the death of Ben Laden. The fate of this sinister character has had no impact on the young people who have fought and who are continuing to fight for freedom and democracy in their countries. One is aware that the practical implementation of their projects is encountering a lot of obstacles. They are, above all, seeking jobs and a reasonable wage - without which the revolutionary impetus is at risk of running out of steam, to the advantage of the religious fanatics who initially remained in the shadows but who will be quite determined to get their voices heard if the situation allows. The indifference felt by the majority of young people regarding the fate of Ben Laden proves that their aspirations have little to do with the hatred of the past (notwithstanding, of course, a few of the terrorists whose action is often inspired by the hatred of their own sectarian group interests).
The general attitude prevailing confirms the concerns provoked by the mass exodus of young Tunisians to Europe. It proves that for many, the dream consisted of being able to travel to one or other of the different countries in the EU and to live there. I am sure that for most of them, the religious question does not play a significant role. Obviously it is still important but it is increasingly felt to be a personal question and should not be imposed.
A few home truths that should not be ignored. Before casting aspersions about others, we Europeans should also formulate or reiterate a number of additional considerations:
- For how many centuries were Europeans themselves unaware of the principle of secularism and did the member states themselves build their alliances and enter into conflict on the basis of religious principles? I would say, by oversimplifying to the extreme - until the point that a king of France declared “Paris is worth a mass” and a king of England separated his state from the Church of Rome in order to marry again as he so wished. A little patience with regard to Muslims is required, on the condition that in our countries they respect our laws;
- Evolution towards the twofold premise of freedom-democracy will not be the same in all Arab countries. This column has already explained that only Tunisia has positive prospects in the short term and that Egypt has to tackle the prominent role played by the military and certain religious divisions. What is going to happen in other countries cannot in any way be predicted;
- It is obvious that if freedom and democracy are not accompanied by encouraging economic developments for young people, the revolutions, in the eyes of these young people, are in danger of becoming tarnished;
- Among the Muslim population, the Arabs are not the most fanatical and in any case they are in a minority (just over 300 million) compared to Muslims of other races - Iranians, Turks and some of the inhabitants of the immense Asian hinterland. Certain experts have calculated that the three most militarily powerful countries in the region are Turkey, Iran and Israel - none of these are Arab countries. The most bloody war in this phase of the world's history was between Iraq and Iran (which cost 1 million lives);
- Some Arab countries intend to recognise the identity and autonomy of the different minority groups (which lived in these areas before the Arab invasion), particularly the Berbers, and this is even happening in countries where the political regime has remained impervious to reforms, such as Morocco. Nonetheless, we cannot just talk about the Arab world at peace because conflicts persist, not only within these countries, such as in Syria. There are also conflicts such as the one occurring in the Sahara between Algeria and Morocco which continues doggedly and is leading the two countries to invest enormous amounts of their resources in procuring weapons;
- There are also conflicts provoked by hatred between Sunni and Shia Muslims, which are so numerous that they are impossible to accurately record. Europe, however, has known wars between Catholics and Protestants and I find the tone of those who are too willing to give us lessons on the matter a little inappropriate;
- In all these countries, the biggest risk is that of corruption, followed in some countries by the determination of the ruling classes to hold on to their privileges and staggering wealth, which allows them to acquire hotels and palaces, football teams and art masterpieces in Europe. It is noticeable that the Europeans are more vociferous about defending freedom, democracy and respect for religious difference when the object of their concern is a country such as Egypt rather than Saudi Arabia;
- The idea of a major kind of European “Marshall Plan” to help Arab countries is nothing but rhetoric and sounds like nothing but extravagance when EU countries themselves are subject to austerity plans. It has to be understood, in Europe and elsewhere, that if good budgetary housekeeping is lacking, the EU would no longer be able to meet the commitments that it wants to continue to respect, both within the Community itself and in its support for third countries. (F.R./transl.fl)