Brussels, 03/11/2010 (Agence Europe) - The EU is not overly concerned about the negative impact on transatlantic relations caused by the mid-term election results on 2 November in the US. This result is a real setback for Barack Obama and his Democrats, who lose their majority in the House of Representatives and are seriously weakened in the Senate, where they retain, nonetheless, a small majority. Officially, the Community institutions are refusing to comment on the, “elections in a third country” but, behind the scenes, initial commentaries and analyses have been rather reassuring.
On Wednesday, Herman Van Rompuy, the president of the European Council, who is expected to meet Barack Obama on 20 November for the EU/US summit in Lisbon, would go no further than stating, “no comment”. His spokesperson simply advised enquiries to be directed to Catherine Ashton. The EU high representative for foreign affairs did not have any comments to make either. Only the European Commission was willing to make a cautious statement through a spokesperson by stating that the institution wanted transatlantic relations to continue with, “the same level of constructive cooperation” as before.
At the European Parliament, opinions are more mixed. The EPP group, the main political force at the assembly, officially welcomed the victory of the Republican Party. The leader of the group, Joseph Daul, wrote a letter on Wednesday to the next head of the US House of Representatives, Republican John Boehner, expressing the wish that, “beyond the changeover in political power, the transatlantic relationship will remain constant in EU/US relations”. Daul also said that, “by giving the Republican party a majority in the House of Representatives and by strengthening its political presence in the Senate, the American people have expressed their desire for the country to focus on employment and economic growth. It also expresses a support in favour of a political class that cares about the proper use of public funds (…) Europeans share the same concerns”.. He finished his letter with a plea for “closer cooperation between Brussels and Washington in the areas of economy, climate change and energy, and the fight against terrorism”.
Other MEPs are more concerned. German MEP Elmar Brock (EPP) was already saying at the Lisbon summit that, “we are in danger of having to deal with an Obama who will not have much desire to make further commitments because he will be preoccupied with assessing his position with regard to what strategy should be adopted at Congress”. Reinhard Bütikofer (Greens), also from Germany, is even more pessimistic and predicted that, “transatlantic relations will be more difficult… President Obama and the Democrats have suffered an historic defeat. This is not good news for Europe”. The MEP from the Greens is particularly worried about repercussions on the role of the US in the Middle East, as well as on international negotiations on the fight against climate change. With regard to the Middle East, Bütikofer is afraid that the US President's room for manoeuvre will be considerably reduced. “One of the victors in the US elections is Benjamin Netanyahu (Ed.: the Israeli prime minister) and one of the losers is Abu Mazen (Ed.: the president of the Palestinian Authority)”.. Bütikofer said that in the climate arena, “Obama can forget about his legislative agenda for the next two years . There will be no substantial US policy on the climate unless, shortly before the Cancun conference, there is a dramatic breakthrough”.
“No fundamental change is expected”. Diplomats close to Catherine Ashton consider that the impact of the elections on US foreign policy will be very minimal with the exception, perhaps, of areas with budgetary implications necessitating ratification from the Congress (climate, ratification of the START nuclear disarmament treaty signed with Russia, etc.). European diplomats explained that, “by and large, everything will continue as before, even more so given that in the area of foreign and security policy, the Republicans are more or less on the same wavelength as the president”. This analysis was confirmed by the US ambassador to Brussels, Howard Gutman, quoted by AFP and who on Wednesday emphasised that the election would not fundamentally change anything in US foreign policy.
European external analysts at the EU institutions also agree that the blow against Barack Obama and the Democrats at the Congress is not expected to have a major impact on transatlantic relations. Marco Incerti from the Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) in Brussels explained that, “the victory of the Republicans can be explained by domestic policy subjects, such as the state of the economy, unemployment or reform of the health care system and not by the foreign policy pursued by the Obama administration until now. The Americans have not voted against his foreign policy and even less against his policy towards Europe, which is therefore expected to continue as before”. To win the presidential elections in 2012, Obama is therefore expected to focus his efforts on domestic policy, particularly economic recovery and job creation, without necessarily changing his foreign policy, concluded Incerti. (H.B./transl.fl)