Essential aspect. What's going on? I have just read a considerable number of press commentaries and views regarding the “Declaration” of the Euro-zone countries regarding the Greek crisis and future management of the single currency. I have subsequently observed that the priority has never been given to the aspect, which, in my opinion, is the most innovative and significant for the future, namely, correcting the imbalance in Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) by ultimately locating the two adjectives that describe it, on the same level. Commentators are highlighting the minutiae contained in the modalities underpinning possible financial support for Greece: analysis of the respective roles of the IMF and member states, criteria for each country's participation, interest rate levels and so forth. These are undoubtedly decisive aspects for helping stabilise the Euro-zone and enable Greece to overcome current difficulties. I consider, however, that the real turning point is contained in the final part of the declaration and what will be remarked upon by historians of European construction in the future (see this column in yesterday's publication).
The imbalance between the monetary aspect of EMU, which is sufficiently consolidated and has autonomous management, and the economic dimension, which is weak and vague, has been criticised from the outset but everything Jacques Delors obtained was represented in an additional word in the Stability Pact and related to what stability and growth would become. So far, economic government figures in an official text of Euro-zone countries (even though the English version of the text preferred to use the term, governance) and four objectives have been indicated: strong coordination of economic policies, supervision of economic and budgetary risks, enhancing action instruments (the excessive debt procedure was explicitly mentioned) and a “robust framework” for resolving crises has been defined. The statistical services of the European Commission is also expected to be able to check national statistics instead of restricting itself to assessing data sent to it. Divergences certainly do still persist with regard to the definition of the rules and how the procedures work: the mandate for bodies in charge of elaborating the project indicate that, “all options for strengthening the legal framework” should be explored. Nonetheless, at the beginning of next year, this legal framework is expected to come into being.
German implications. Generally, emphasis has been placed on the pressure that will result from the new framework on member states that are less disciplined in the budgetary field. Coordination of economic policies, however, covers all member states. Germany must also explain and justify its fiscal policy, which, in the opinion of other member states, is discouraging domestic consumption and subsequently contributing to trade imbalances in the EU. It has to understand that the slowdown in consumption will also reduce its own exports. The debate on this aspect of German policy and other fundamental orientations will not take place in an indirect or biased way any more by way of interviews or press statements but officially, through the Economy/Finance Council, Eurogroup and the European Council itself because heads of state and governments are now directly involved.
Essential aspects to clarify. There are certainly a lot of aspects that need to be deepened and clarified, particularly the institutional relationship between the European Union as a whole and the Euro-zone and its specific bodies: the European Central Bank, in particular. Last week, we noticed that Heads of State and governments in the Euro-zone are not hesitating to meet up between them and take important decisions in this framework. At the same time, however, it is expected that all member states take part in this group that will be set up in order to develop the project for economic governance under Mr Van Rompuy. Will this project necessitate amendments to the Lisbon treaty? Yes, according to the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel but not necessarily, according to other heads of government who are less inclined to envisage any further revision to the treaty and everything else that this would imply. Ms Merkel's position presupposes consensus among the EU27, indispensable for amending the treaty and which also explains why she does not envisage “economic government” with the participation of all member states (while Gordon Brown is currently rejecting any possibility of this kind of government…) For further information on this, the report contained in our previous publication, covering the European Council and the, declarations and positions that followed, is the only report in the international press that provides an overall view of the question.
What is the European Parliament's role in this colossal building site? This column will be returning to the question. (F.R.)