Baku, 03/03/2010 (Agence Europe) - The European Union is aware that it cannot continue to ignore unresolved conflicts if it wants to avoid a repetition of the August 2008 events in Georgia, but this time in areas like Upper Karabakh. In Yerevan (Armenia) and Baku (Azerbaijan), the Spanish foreign minister held meetings on behalf of the EU high representative, Catherine Ashton, on 2 and 3 March 2010, chairing the EU's political dialogue (replacing what used to be known as “EU troika meetings”) in three Southern Caucasus countries, Armenia, Azerbaijani and Georgia. He expressed optimism about closer EU ties with the countries in question, especially Armenia and Azerbaijan, and the likelihood of a solution being found to the Upper Karabakh conflict.
At a joint press conference on Tuesday 2 March with Azerbaijan's foreign minister, Elmar Mammadyarov, after the second leg of his tour, Moratinos said that they had discussed frozen conflicts and long-drawn-out conflicts and now needed to discuss settled conflicts. He said they had reached the end stage of the parties' commitment to find a final solution backed by the Minsk Group and based on the long-standing Madrid principles that were only agreed in 2007 under Spanish chairmanship of the OSCE. A revised version of the commitments was unveiled by Armenia on Tuesday, where Moratinos stopped off on his way to Baku - commitments calling for conflict solution that complies with the final Helsinki Act banning the use of force and the threat of using force and ensuring territorial integrity, equal rights and self-determination. This would involve returning some of the land occupied by Armenia around the Upper Karabakh enclave (some 14% of Azerbaijan) and deciding on the region's status. One of the most recent suggestions by Azerbaijan gave the region a similar status to the Azeri enclave of Nakhichevan in Armenia (known as an “associated republic”). The two could be connected by land routes in order to provide direct access to the two enclaves. The question of what to do with the political prisoners remains to be settled, along with the return of the million or so displaced persons (according to Azeri sources). A few days before the talks with the EU, Azerbaijan said it hoped that Armenia would release detained Azeri activists. At a press conference on Tuesday morning, Armenian foreign minister Edouard Nalbandian urged Azerbaijan to withdraw its “snipers” from the region of Upper Karabakh.
The Minsk Group was laucnehd after the war between Azerbaijan and Armenia, and comprises a representative of the United State, a representative of France and a representative of Russia. It is expected to meet in Paris on 4 March. On 26 January, the Azeri and Armenian presidents, Ilham Aliyev and Serge Sarkissian, met in Sotchi to discuss the Upper Karabakh. A month later, the Azeri defence minister, Safar Abiev, warned about a “big war” kicking off in the Caucasus if Armenia did not withdraw its troops from Upper Karabakh. He said Azerbaijan had already waited 15 years for a solution to be found to the conflict, and it was not prepared to wait another 15 years.
Tuesday's talks moved in the direction of opening what President Aliyev described as a “new chapter” in the EU's relations with Armenia and Azerbaijan. Negotiations over an EU association agreement with the two countries might be opened during the Spanish Presidency and run side-by-side. The signing of readmission and visa agreements with the two countries (such agreements have only been signed with Georgia at the present time) and strengthening relations in the field of justice and home affairs may also continue alongside the association agreement talks. Both countries have agreed to a confidence-raising programme put forward by the EU in support of an existing partnership in domains like the media, education and civil society. Further work will be required in Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia on human rights, democracy (open elections) and the role of civil society. There has been a snowballing of contact with Brussels and the EU's presence is starting to be felt on the ground (in addition to appointing an EU special representative, the EU has opened representation offices in all three countries). EU Enlargement Commissioner Stefan Füle will be travelling to the region in April. The Armenian president will be in Brussels later in April and Georgian representatives are expected to visit Brussels at some point in the first six months of the year.
Another issue to be resolved is better relations between Turkey and Armenia, supported by the EU (rather blindly, some say) but which will help a resolution to be found to the conflict in Upper Karabakh. Both Turkey and Azerbaijan are connecting implementation of two protocols signed in October 2009 by Turkey and Armenia to resolution of the Upper Karabakh conflict. Armenia is particularly keen for an opening of its border with Turkey (which Turkey refuses). The US Congress is expected to adopt a resolution on 4 March on the massacres and “genocide” of Armenians by Turkey in 1915. Armenia adopted an amendment on 25 February to a draft law on international agreements allowing it to withdraw from such agreements before they come into force, and also from protocols signed with Turkey on the restoration of diplomatic ties and other connections between the two countries.
Russian gas company Gazprom is increasing its bids for gas from Azerbaijan, hoping to win a contract for the second oil field (Szah Deniz) as Azerbaijan diversifies its gas exports, with agreements in the offing with Iran and Romania. In an interview on 25 February, the head of Azeri oil company SOCAR did not rule out Azeri involvement in the South Stream project but warned against upping the political stakes over energy. Asked about this during his visit to Baku, Moratinos said that he would be discussing energy issues with Mammadyarov as both sides were “determined” to work together. There would then be negotiations of the free trade agreements foreseen in the Eastern Partnership but Azerbaijan would first have to join the World Trade Organisation before such an agreement could be signed. (A.By./transl.fl)