Brussels, 06/07/2009 (Agence Europe) - The COPA (Committee of Professional Agricultural Organisations) and the COGECA (General Confederation of Agricultural Cooperatives) published their estimates for the 2009-2010 harvest on Monday 6 July. The two agricultural organisations expect cereal production to be 281.319 million tonnes in 2009-2010, 9.1% less than in 2008-2009.
The fall in production in 2009-2010 is related to a reduction in area cultivated. Farmers' decisions today are made in particular on the basis of production costs “Nowadays it has become increasingly difficult to make any money from wheat production,” said Arnaud Petit, COPA-COGECA Products and Markets Director. “A great many farmers have moved from wheat, for example, to oilseeds because wheat is less cost-effective,” he added. The first lesson, then, to be drawn from these estimates is that it is no longer consumption forecasts (market perspective) but rather production and input costs that determine what is to be sown. Production is lower, the level of stocks quite high and, in addition, the main countries to which the EU exports (Maghreb, Pakistan, Iran, etc) are expected to have good cereal harvests. This means that prices could remain low in 2009-2010 and that less cereal may be sown. The reduction in production is also related to the poor climatic conditions in the autumn (drought in some countries).
Oilseed production is forecast to fall by 10.8% in 2009-2010 as a result of lower yields (difficult climatic conditions in the spring.) The reduction in production means that the EU remains heavily dependent on vegetable protein imports. European pulse production is expected to be significant (-27.6%) caused, in particular, by lower yields. (L.C./transl.rt)