Intellectual scams. The British government's rapprochement with Europe is no doubt primarily due to the repercussions that the financial crisis is inevitably going to have on the UK's business model. The British prime minister, Gordon Brown, and business secretary, Peter Mandelson, believe that the British model should now strike a better balance between the financial sector and manufacturing (see my column in yesterday's newsletter). The European framework is crucial for this. As for joining the euro, this was considered in the past by Tony Blair and it has now become an explicit part of the plans of the other two old EU member states that have not yet joined the euro (even though they could) - Denmark, which was given an opt out, and Sweden, which will not commit to the widest currency fluctuation band in order to provide a legal justification for not joining the euro.
The controversy surrounding the euro in these member states sometimes look like intellectual scams vis-a-vis public opinion. Eurosceptics have always tricked people by inventing stories about the perverse effects of joining the euro, even in member states where the single currency is the only protection against a spiral of devaluation and monetary disorders. In France, the people who initially criticised the weakness of the euro against the dollar are the very same people who are criticising the euro today for being too strong! This is sheer bloody-mindedness and looking back on their rants today, they are somewhere on the scale between ridiculous and ignoble. But people do get influenced by all this guff.
Denmark and Sweden are preparing to join the euro. In both Denmark and Sweden at the moment, the governments have overcome the psychological reservations (see issue 9773). The Danish prime minister, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, has said that the deadline for a referendum on Denmark joining the euro is 2011. He said that the euro guarantees economic and political stability in Europe and the current financial problems make it clear that Denmark has to join the euro. The cost of not joining is evident because one cannot influence decisions one is not involved in. In order to rein in the slump of its currency on the money markets, Denmark has been forced to increase interest rates while they are being cut everywhere else in order to boost the economy. In Sweden, a minister has made similar arguments, noting that a recent opinion poll had revealed a sharp drop in opposition to the euro in public opinion (although one party in the coalition government justifies its reservations by saying that Swedes are not yet prepared to join).
Essential for the UK. The United Kingdom is in a less disagreeable position in theory because it attends summits of eurozone countries as an observer. Nicolas Sarkozy has in fact set up “a Eurogroup with the UK as permanent guest”. In general, it is clear that Europe would have even more weight globally if the United Kingdom, Sweden and Denmark were to join the euro. It would become essential for the United Kingdom to join the euro if the Euro summit (the Eurogroup plus the UK) were to move in the direction of a kind of European economic governance, as Sarkozy is recommending.
What happens in the future will clearly depend on the desires of the British people, as they will have the final choice. If public opinion does not change, the United Kingdom will remain on the fringes of the European project, in its traditional Eurosceptic role. The currency is only one part of this. Some strong opinion, deeply rooted at a time when the Commonwealth was a global power, has to change. To take the example of agriculture - the British do not grow their own food. They import it from Canada, Australia, India and New Zealand in return for exports of industrial goods. But these countries now produce their own industrial goods or import them from elsewhere - the United States, China, Germany and elsewhere. At the same time, Europe as a whole needs its own food autonomy and must therefore preserve and develop its farming. The United Kingdom should accept this and join in with the rest of us.
Consenting parties moving forward. If the British people will not join in, the EU will consent but will not abandon its ambitions. The time when Europe could wait for laggards, begging and cajoling them, has passed. The united Europe will be built by people who see it as indispensable and beneficial. Anyone who does not want to join and doesn't understand the need for it will keep their rights thus far, but will remain on the fringes of new developments. Everything that is happening in the world demonstrates that a united Europe is a necessity. Everyone has the right to make their own decisions but not the right to stand in the way of those who want to move forward.
(F.R./transl.fl)