Now the problems start. After the success of last month's mediation which brought an end to the armed conflict between Russia and Georgia, Monday's extraordinary summit was a significant step forward for EU foreign policy and Nicolas Sarkozy was right to highlight the difference between this and the similar summit in 2003 on Iraq, when the EU appeared disunited and, so, did not have its voice heard (see yesterday evening's Special Edition). This time, the Council conclusions were approved unanimously (the full text is in our Special Edition), and all those involved have expressed their satisfaction, despite the different sensitivities alluded to by the president.
What is, and what is not, possible. Why did this piece begin by stating that the difficulties now start? Quite simply because the call to Russia to do a U-turn on recognition of the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia has no chance of success. Reports from Western “special envoys” on the arrival of the Russian fleet in the Abkhazian capital describe scenes of great rejoicing; and the situation is the same in South Ossetia. Nor must one fail to take account of the artificial division of Ossetia into two parts, one in Russia and one in Georgia. When the USSR disintegrated, the new independent states should have been formed as a matter of urgency.
The question that has to be asked is the extent to which the EU considers Russia's renunciation of the recognition of these two new states features among the conditions for the relaunch of cooperation. Indeed, the Conclusions, after the firm condemnation of paragraph 2, make no further explicit comment on this point, though they talk about the need to abide by the principles of the rule of law and the UN Charter. What the EU is calling for is the total withdrawal of Russian forces to their previous positions and the opening of international discussions on how to achieve security and stability in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The condition set for the resumption of EU-Russia partnership agreement talks is that Russian troops return to their pre-7 August positions, with the accompanying statement that there is no alternative preferable to a strong relationship based on cooperation, confidence and dialogue. Next Monday, Mr Sarkozy will be in Moscow, along with Mr Barroso and Mr Solana, for discussions.
A global problem. The key point is that South Ossetia and Abkhazia are only one part of an infinitely larger and more complex issue, which involves, either directly or indirectly, many other countries and continents. The general point was made when the independence of Kosovo was recognised. Some EU countries have not recognised the independence of this country, and the Spanish prime minister explicitly pointed this out to press on Monday evening: Spain supports countries' territorial integrity and does not acknowledge unilateral declarations of independence (see Mr Zapatero's statement in our Special Edition). In all of Asia, only Japan and South Korea (plus Afghanistan) have recognised Kosovo; three countries in Africa and two South American countries have also done so. Meeting in the capital of Tajikistan on 27 August, the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), which brings together Russia, China and the former Soviet republics of Asia, highlighted the near universal refusal to recognise the new independent states decided by Moscow. China explicitly expressed its concern at the Russian decision.
The refusals and reluctance can be easily explained. For Spain it is a matter of avoiding any ambivalence with regard to Basque separatist calls, and any desire for independence from Catalan or other minorities. For China, much is made of Tibet and the Muslim minority in the province of Xinjiang, but the main worry for Beijing is Taiwan, an issue that remains pending, but which has not been resolved. Moscow's actions must be seen in this overall context, and are of all the more concern since some capitals fear other Russian targets, such as Crimea, which is part of Ukraine, but whose population is largely Russian in origin, and parts of Moldova.
On a general level, the European Council has restated that there is no alternative preferable to strong relations between the EU and Russia. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said much the same thing in an article published last week in the Western press, while setting out the reasons which, he felt, made the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia inevitable.
As we see, things are looking positive. But difficulties remain. (F.R./transl.rt)