Brussels, 11/07/2008 (Agence Europe) - While the Irish government is in the middle of a political assessment of the reasons that made the Irish reject the Lisbon Treaty - it should report to the next European Council in October -, legal experts have already begun to identify “legally possible” solutions for breaking the current deadlock. Officially, the Council and European Commission's legal services say they are not involved in such reflection. The Irish should be allowed time to examine the situation and put political proposals forward. Only after this will it be possible to examine their legal feasibility, it is explained in Council. The president-in-office of the European Council, Nicolas Sarkozy, will be in Dublin on 21 July to discuss the matter with the Irish authorities and sketch out solutions. The aim of the presidency is to have the agreement of all 27 on a “method” for overcoming the crisis “by October or December”, Mr Sarkozy said on Thursday at the European Parliament (EUROPE 9701).
There are not many possible solutions, legal experts explain. All the more as the European Council in June already fixed several parameters that member states seem to want to abide by at all cost: - no renegotiation of the Lisbon Treaty, i.e. no amendment to the treaty that would require a new ratification of the text in member states that have already ratified it; - and no exclusion of Ireland, hence no “two-speed Europe”.
Within these parameters, and in the knowledge that the Lisbon Treaty may only take effect if ratified by all 27 members of the EU, the solution most likely to succeed seems to be:
- the Irish will vote for a second time, most probably in spring 2009, on exactly the same text (so that ratifications by the other member states would still be valid);
- before this second referendum, member states will, within the European Council, adopt a “decision” dealing with the Irish people's specific issues and concerns which played a part in their rejection of the treaty (it will be for the Irish government to identify these points). This one-off decision, similar to Denmark's for the Maastricht Treaty in 1992, could, for example, grant an opt out for Ireland on civil and criminal law, provide for an Irish veto on taxation and no change with regard to Irish neutrality and Irish abortion legislation;
- in addition to simply confirming the existing legal situation, Ireland could, if the other 26 member states wanted it, get amendment of the Lisbon Treaty that would not require further ratification by the other countries. According to legal experts, the only point that fulfils this condition and which could be of interest to the Irish is the future make-up of the European Commission. The prospect of reducing the number of commissioners from 2014 is known to be of concern to some of the people of Ireland, who would like to see the one commissioner per country rule retained. The Lisbon Treaty states that, from 2014, the Commission will be made up of a number of members (including its president and the EU high representative for foreign affairs and security policy) corresponding to two thirds of the number of member states unless the Council reach a unanimous decision to amend this number. The European Council could, then, undertake beforehand to adopt a decision to amend the two thirds rule after the Lisbon Treaty comes into effect.
- some, like Professor Steve Peers of the University of Essex, believe that this package could be complemented by further measures to, for example, enhance democracy and transparency within the EU to respond to criticism of the lack of information to ordinary citizens, expressed during the Irish referendum campaign. (H.B./transl.rt)