Brussels, 20/06/2008 (Agence Europe) - On Friday 20 June, the EU heads of state and government agreed that the ratification process for the Lisbon Treaty should continue in the seven member states that have not yet made their pronouncement and that the European Council will come back to what should be done following the Irish “no” during its next meeting, on 15 October, under French EU Presidency.
In the meantime, the Irish government is invited to make a further analysis of the situation and of the reasons that caused the Irish to reject the new treaty. “More time is needed to analyse the situation”, the leaders say in their conclusions adopted on 20 June. In a concern to avoid putting pressure on Dublin, however, they do not - at least publicly - call for the Irish government to put any concrete proposals forward during the October summit to overcome the crisis. “We must not push things along too fast. There is no pressure and hence no timetable (for finding a solution) but we shall try to come to a conclusion as soon as possible”, the president of the European Council, Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Jansa, commented to the press.
Members of the circle around French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who is to preside over the European Council in October, also insist that there is “no pressure” on Ireland for it to rapidly propose a solution. And, as for the October summit, there is “no obligation of outcome”, Paris stresses.
At the same time, everyone is aware of the fact that, if no agreement is reached in October on a precise scenario for overcoming the crisis, it will be practically impossible to resolve the Irish problem before the European elections in June 2009 and renewal of the Commission in autumn 2009 - with all the complications that this would pose in political terms (conducting an electoral campaign in complete uncertainty about the future of the EU), but also in institutional terms (size of the Commission, number of seats at the European Parliament, etc). Although no precise timetable is set out in the conclusions (of the European Council), everyone knows full well that the next European elections in 2009 are a deadline, Mr Sarkozy acknowledged. The French president will be in Ireland on 11 July to discuss matters with the government and to “try to understand and to find solutions” for preparing the European Council of October. On 12 July (the day before the summit on the Union for the Mediterranean in Paris), Mr Sarkozy will meet with the Czech and Swedish prime ministers (their countries will be holding the six-month rotating presidencies in 2009) to speak of the Irish issue, with a view to preparing the October summit.
Brian Cowen, Irish Prime Minister, who had reported to his colleagues on the possible reasons for the Irish no-vote on Thursday evening, said he was pleased with the outcome of discussions. “We now need time to analyse the result and its full implications. Only then can we turn to the possible ways forward”, he told the press. The head of the Irish government promised “close cooperation” with the other member states, as he knows “any potential way forward would have to be acceptable not only to Ireland but also to every other EU member state”. There was one point on which there was absolutely unanimous agreement: “It is in Europe's interest and in Ireland's interest that we all find an acceptable way forward”.
The minimalist conclusions of the European Council on the Lisbon Treaty also reflect the concern of the leaders to take account of the specific situation in the Czech Republic. After British ratification of the treaty last Wednesday, which was warmly welcomed by the European Council, and, apart from Ireland, the Czech Republic is in fact the greatest danger for the Lisbon Treaty. Czech President Vaclav Klaus declared it “dead” and part of the government has at least expressed doubt as to how appropriate it is to pursue the ratification process after the Irish “no”. The situation in Prague is made even more complicated by the fact that the Senate, before continuing the ratification process, has called on the constitutional court to verify whether the new treaty is compatible with the Czech constitution (the verdict is not expected until this autumn). To this must be added the prospect of elections in October for renewal of part of the Czech senate, which could have an impact on the future position of the government on the treaty. For all these reasons, the Czech prime minister, Mirek Topolanek, has refused to use too binding or categorical language in the conclusions on continuing the ratification process in all countries. A footnote added to the text at the explicit request of the Czech Republic, stipulates that the European Council noted the fact that the Czech Republic cannot ratify the Lisbon Treaty until the Czech constitutional court has given a positive verdict on its compatibility with the Czech constitution. In addition to this legal uncertainty, Mr Topolanek sought to reassure his European peers of his “political will” to ratify the text, as long as the constitutional court allows it.
After dinner on Thursday night, Mirek Topolanek said the Czech Republic would not hold back the ratification process. He said his government had approved the Lisbon Treaty and he himself had signed it. It was therefore quite clear, he told reporters, that although the Lisbon Treaty was a compromise that was difficult to swallow, he connected his political career with the treaty. But that did not mean that ratification had to take place in 2008, he added, leaving new doubts over the expected timetable. The President of the European Council, Janez Jansa, said he was certain that the Czech Republic would ratify the treaty this year after all. After the meeting, he said the Czech Republic had promised to all it could to ratify the treaty. It will do everything in its power, he said.
No Lisbon Treaty, no further EU enlargement. The European Council is refraining from publicly applying pressure on Ireland and the Czech Republic to get them to save the Lisbon Treaty, but France, Germany and Luxembourg applied pressure indirectly on Thursday and Friday by saying that without the Lisbon Treaty, the three countries will block any further EU enlargement, including to Croatia. But last week, the Slovenian Presidency of the EU and the European Commission said that the Irish no vote would not jeopardise Croatia's chance of joining the EU, probably in 2010. It is known that Ireland and the Czech Republic are great backers of EU enlargement, particularly to the Western Balkans. A number of countries that have reservations about the Lisbon Treaty are the most in favour of enlargement but without the Lisbon Treaty, there will not be any enlargement, said Nicolas Sarkozy, the President of France, at a press conference on the fringes of the European Summit in Brussels on Thursday evening. He went on to directly threaten a halt to all EU expansion. In order to expand, you need unanimity, he said, noting that it was very odd that Europe found it hard to agree on its institutions but agreed to allow in a 28th, 29th or 30th member state. The Chancellor of Germany, Angela Merkel, said she fully backed the French position. The Nice Treaty was designed for an EU with 27 member states and no more, she told reporters. What about Croatia? That also applies to Croatia, she said, which will not be able to join if the Lisbon Treaty is not in force. No enlargement without a new treaty, said Luxembourg's prime minister Jean-Claude Juncker. Although it backs the EU enlargement process continuing, Hungary made similar remarks. Hungarian prime minister Ferenc Gyursany said that if the EU wanted countries in the Balkans to join the EU, it would definitely require changes to the situation introduced by the Nice Treaty (the treaty currently in force). Other leaders refused to connect the Lisbon Treaty with future enlargements of the EU and the accession of Croatia. Don't worry, enlargement will continue the way we said, explained Finnish President Tarja Halonen at a press conference. Poland is also refusing to countenance the EU's enlargement policy being jeopardised by institutional complications, said Polish prime minister Donald Tusk, rejecting the way the treaty issue was being linked with enlargement. Tusk said it wasn't Ukraine, Serbia, Croatia or Turkey that had held a referendum where the vote had been no. Austria also argued in favour of Croatia joining the EU. Croatia must not fall victim to referendum rejection in Ireland, said Austrian foreign minister Ursula Plassnik. Italian prime minister Silvio Berlusconi said Croatia was very close to accession and nobody doubted that it would join the EU, with or without the Lisbon Treaty. The President of the European Council, Janez Jansa, also tried to play down the issue. 'We will find a way out of the crisis before any candidate country will be ready and mature, before any decision has to be taken on accession,' he told reporters on Thursday evening. The EU enlargement policy 'should not be the victim' of the current problems with the treaty, he added.
The prime minister of Spain, Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, said he wanted the Lisbon Treaty to come into force as soon as possible, but said the solution to the current crisis would have to found by the EU27 and there was no way Ireland could be kept out of the process. The Chancellor of Germany, Angela Merkel, told reporters that a solution would only possible with Ireland.
At the start of the European Council on Thursday evening, the president of the European Parliament, Hans-Gert Pottering, said the Lisbon Treaty strengthened the democratic representation of European citizens. The European Parliament had obtained codecision rights in virtually all areas, he said. The Lisbon Treaty gives national parliaments greater responsibility in drawing up European policy and gives all citizens greater right to intervene in the EU's political life through the introduction of the right of initiative to ask the EU institutions to act, he added. Pottering also pointed out that by signing the treaty on 13 December 2007, the heads of state of all EU member countries had pledged to conclude the ratification process before the European elections of June 2009. He thanked Brian Cowen for his statement to the Irish people on 14 June 2008 that made it clear that his message to his European partners would be clear and precise - Ireland has no intention of compromising the EU's progress, which is the main engine of peace and prosperity in the history of Europe. (H.B.)