The most eye-catching aspect of the preparation for the entry into force of the new European treaty is the 'musical chairs' of candidates for the new top jobs, which is taking up the most column inches, is the issue most under discussion and is providing the greatest number of leaks to the media. But the future appointments will actually depend on the nature and powers of the two new jobs - an unchanging president of the European Council and the beefed up high representative for foreign policy job (who will chair both the External Relations Council (= foreign policy) and be the vice-president of the European Commission).
Some comments on the tough timetable. Over and above the jobs themselves and practical issues I discussed in yesterday's column, there is another question that has to be settled before progress can be made, namely the question of the timetable. If everything goes as planned, the new treaty will come into force early next year. Lawyers say that the fixed president of the European Council has to be appointed as soon as the treaty comes into force - without any delay. If not, it will not even be possible to convene the summit. But the new Commission (including the new European Commission president and the vice-president who will also be the high representative) will have to wait until the new European Parliament has been elected - and the European elections are not until six months further down the line. In the real world of politics, however, the various appointments are inter-connected because a reasonable balance between nationalities and political forces has to be struck.
These matters are being discussed informally at the institutions and between the various governments, with a huge dollop of secrecy, for the reasons I outlined yesterday. But MEPs are not bound by the same duty to button their lips. The report by Jean-Luc Dehaene will be a vital stage in the process. He himself combines knowledge of the issues (he was himself a vice chair of the Convention as everyone is well aware), experience, wisdom and a practical touch. He demonstrated this in his statements to Agence EUROPE (printed in issue 9612 of our newsletter and commented upon in my column in issue 9617). According to Dehaene, it would be better for the appointments to come as a 'package' striking the necessary balances - but this is not possible under the current timetable. And this is where a suggestion from Alain Lamassoure comes in (following his suggestion for the chair of the General Affairs Council mentioned yesterday) of one member state, the Czech Republic, for example, which will be chairing the Council in the first half of 2009, and which could postpone until the middle of next year not the actual ratification of the new treaty but the passing of its ratification legislation. This would mean that the new treaty would not come into force until the autumn of 2009 and a balanced package of appointments for the top jobs could be introduced (this idea has been gaining ground and may become the EP's official position - see next page).
A complicated presidency. Lamassoure backs Valéry Giscard d'Estaing's suggestion of introducing basic European procedures in the appointment of the stable presidency of the European Council - the candidates would have to come forward and address a hearing of heads of state. A televised address would make it possible for public opinion to get to know the public views of the candidates, suggests Lamassoure, and would help the heads of state clarify their own ideas about what the new jobs are about. Dehaene does not seem to be willing to include this idea in his report. If Lamassoure keeps the pressure up, it would be for the EP plenary to decide. Ahead of the EP expressing its views, the other institutions are keeping their mouths shut, apart from on one point - they reject the idea of a 'president of the European Union' which would be too easily manipulated by the media and even by the authorities of some member states. There is no president of the European Union. What exists is a series of presidents, each with different jobs.
Anticipation. Meanwhile, the musical chairs of suggestions continue. Some observers say this is just testing the waters. Ideas are fed to the media to see how people react. But some suggestions are gaining weight - particularly those from Paris (France will be leading the musical chairs in the next six months). Jose Manuel Barroso and Jean-Claude Juncker are reported to be the favourites for president of the European Commission and president of the European Council (no news about who would get which job). These two are undeniably key figures from small EU states. But at the same time, the same sources are reported to have rejected the ruling out of British candidates, arguing that the presidents will not actually represent a member state but rather the institution they are the head of.
Either way, the names will not really be very important until the powers of each job have been decided upon. This brings us back full circle - let's start with the basics. (F.R.)