Developments along different lines. The results of all surveys confirm that British public opinion remains opposed to consolidating European integration, and to the Lisbon Treaty in particular. Analysts consider one can take it as read that, in the event of a referendum in the United Kingdom, the treaty would be rejected, which could lead to schism within the EU. Nonetheless, at the same time, British authorities give the impression that they have a clearer understanding of the need for their country to play an active part in Community projects. In particular, the British government sees in an increasingly critical light its exclusion from the bodies that manage the eurozone, not only from the monetary point of view (European Central Bank) but also from the economic point of view (Eurogroup). Gordon Brown is seeking to create a sort of intergovernmental directorship in these fields with Germany and France (and has invited Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy to a three-way meeting on financial stability - see our bulletin No 9569). In my view, however, such an initiative will not get beyond the stage of general principles or go any further than the simple cooperation that already exists with the United States or Switzerland. Furthermore, the Court of Justice recently rejected the British attempt to take part in certain aspects of the Schengen acquis, confirming that regulations on “Frontex” and the management of passports are reserved for states belonging to the Schengen area. Appeal action taken by the United Kingdom against the EU Council that had excluded it from such involvement is in itself significant. I would also note that the protection of European farmers is beginning to be a cause of concern for the British members of the European Parliament, for example when it comes to imports of Brazilian meat and subsidies to sheep farming.
The pro-European movement - although well-defended for years within the European Parliament, notably by Andrew Duff and Richard Corbett (who is EP rapporteur on the Lisbon Treaty alongside Mendez de Vigo of Spain) and which Tony Blair had sought in vain to make his party and voters support - therefore seems to be gaining ground, at least on the practical level. The strange behaviour of the British prime minister during the signing of the Lisbon Treaty falls into this context. The absence of Gordon Brown during the official signing ceremony, at which he arrived late to sign on his own far from the television and cameras, might seem funny if interpreted as no more than childish sulking or impoliteness (after saying how disappointed he was, the president of the European Commission went on to say: “It is obvious that our British friends do not feel particularly involved in the European institutions). The interpretation could be quite different, however, if Brown's absence were construed as a gesture for internal use - a way to justify refusal of the referendum, by removing all solemnity from the ceremony and eliminating all echo in public opinion and the media, with a view to proving that the text signed was simply to make a few minor adjustments to the treaties already in force (a survey carried out a few weeks earlier had shown that 51% of the British respondents considered the new treaty would have an adverse effect on their country, with just 17% believing the impact would be positive).
The aim of the Conservatives. If successful, parliamentary ratification would allow a dramatic split to be avoided. But it would in no way change the fact that, on the Continent, one is increasingly wondering whether Great Britain really wants to be part of the united Europe. In this column at the end of June, I had asked: To what extent is the UK still part of the EU? (bulletin 9458). A few weeks later, the last survivor of the signatories of the Treaty of Rome, Jean François Poncet, had asserted: “The United Kingdom is increasingly finding itself in the position of an associate member of the EU and no longer as a full member”. One might wonder what the aim of the robust campaign by the Conservative party in favour of the referendum is, as one knows full well that the result would be rejection of the new treaty, followed by a burst of continental initiatives to safeguard it for the countries in favour (see our column yesterday). Are we merely up against electoral tactics, or does David Cameron really aim to do away with common policies and all trace of European integration? When he first appeared in Brussels last year, he had voiced opposition even to a “lighter” treaty and announced that, within the European Parliament, the Conservatives will leave the EPP Group after the 2009 elections to form a new political group, the Movement for European Reform.
Accepting isolation. The United Kingdom is free to make its own choice, and it will at any rate remain entitled to be part of the common market. But it will not be able to oppose progress to European integration that most other member states hope to achieve.
(F.R.)