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Image header Agence Europe
Europe Daily Bulletin No. 9498
Contents Publication in full By article 32 / 34
ECONOMIC INTERPENETRATION / (eu) investment

Prospect of record foreign direct investment in 2007, according to The Economist. With a total of $1474.7 billion projected - a 10% increase on the previous year - the foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows are likely to beat the record in 2007 and continue upwards until 2011, the British weekly The Economist announced in a report published jointly with the University of Columbia. The report was compiled largely on the basis of forecasts from 600 business leaders. 2007's record figure will probably fall slightly in 2008 (to $1406.4 billion) before rising again in the following years ($1470.3 billion projected in 2009, $1536.8 billion in 2010 and $1604.4 billion in 2011). Growth will depend mainly on investment in the rich countries, as was the case in 2005 and 2006. Today these inflows represent two thirds of the total, and this is reflected in the table of the top 82 FDI recipient countries. Last year, developed countries held 11 of the top 13 places in the list, with the exception of China which moved directly into third place among recipient countries. The report notes, too, that, despite its dynamism and growing importance on world markets, inflows to India (ranked 18th) will only be modest ($20.4 billion, or 1.36% of the world total). Increased acquisitions by foreign companies combined with measures to encourage FDI recently adopted by the Indian government will lead to higher FDI inflows. The five lowest ranked countries are Cuba (78th, with $0.5 billion), Kuwait (79th, $0.4 billion), Iran (80th, $0.4 billion), Sri Lanka (81st, $0.3 billion) and Kenya (82nd, $0.1 billion). The key trends expected for FDI over the coming years are: - 1) after some retrenchment in 2008, cross-border mergers and acquisitions will continue to drive global FDI. The US and the EU15 (inclusive of intra-EU inflows) will continue to attract the majority of FDI; - 2) the US is expected to easily retain its position as the world's leading FDI recipient between 2007 and 2011; - 3) among emerging markets, China will remain by far the main FDI recipient, with almost 6% of the world total and 16% of projected inflows into emerging markets; - 4) there is likely to be some acceleration of the relocation of labour-intensive manufacturing to emerging markets, although this is unlikely to be as dramatic as is being predicted by the majority of analysts; - 5) relocation of services will also accelerate; - 6) investment by companies from leading emerging economies will continue to grow. The full report is available at http: //http://www.eiu.com/wip or http: //cpii.columbia.edu (il)

 

Contents

A LOOK BEHIND THE NEWS
THE DAY IN POLITICS
GENERAL NEWS
ECONOMIC INTERPENETRATION
WEEKLY SUPPLEMENT