Things are off to a bad start for relaunching the WTO Doha Round world trade talks. Many commentators give the impression they have not understood the real reasons why talks have stalled. These reasons are twofold: - a) each group of countries taking part in the talks called for excessive concessions from the others; and b) some essential chapters were totally forgotten.
What has been achieved is enough. The United States was being over-pressed to abolish domestic support to agriculture (when the world needs American farm production); the EU was being urged to open up its agricultural market too much (when it is vital for Europe to provide reasonable protection to farming activity throughout its territory); emergent countries were being pressed to reduce the protection of their still fragile industry (the danger coming from China, far more than from the richer economies that have higher production costs) and their services activity; and poor countries were being asked to do too much when it comes to trading reciprocity. Talks cannot be reactivated by maintaining excessive ambitions whereby each group of countries ignores the essential interests of the other groups, but by fixing reasonable objectives bearing the general interest in mind.
The concessions that were practically already acquired are sufficient to achieve significant progress in market opening and in expansion of world trade, and comprise several initiatives in favour of the poor countries. What has already been achieved must be used as a base, a considerable and positive base for all, instead of following the demands of wider trade and other pressure groups. If every party makes the same demands as those that led to the collapse of talks in July, then we are on the road to total failure.
The first condition for reactivating talks lies therefore in the requirement that each group of countries take into consideration at least part of the reasons given by the other groups, and that the talks focus on realistic objectives, that is, objectively acceptable objectives.
The forgotten aspects. The second condition is that of introducing into talks, in one way or another, at least a touch of the aspects that a debate exclusively focused on trading interests neglects, which includes: - protection of the environment, sustainable growth, workers' rights, and war without mercy on counterfeit goods and false indications of origin (which conceal deadly dangers for consumers). There is constant talk of such requirements which are now recognised as essential and a priority for Mankind and for Mankind's survival on Earth, but they are systematically excluded from the trade talks because they do not fall within the scope of the WTO. It would seem that trade officials live in a separate world where anything is permitted when it comes to conquering markets: destroying nature, ruining the territorial balance of a continent, and the trade in men and women, and very often in children, as slaves.
An insipid World Bank. The appeals and the anathema of pressure groups directly interested in trade do not greatly impress me, and I am not impressed by the calculations that claim to measure the advantages of market opening to the dollar. In this field, I would award the World Bank first prize for stupidity. Experts from this organisation (which has, moreover, considerable merit for its intervention in the financing of useful projects) have calculated at $287 billion the profits to be made by total trade liberalisation in the world by 2015, an amount that could even reach $460 billion if opening were accompanied by improvements in productivity. And that's a great deal of money, isn't it? What World Bank experts fail to calculate is the cost: the destruction of the natural environment especially in the Amazone, China and South Asia; the disappearance of farming activity in Europe, Japan and in a large part of India and several areas of the United States; the financial, social and cultural cost of the death of territorial balance reached after centuries of effort (in Europe of course but also in many other countries); and the uncontrolled spread of urban areas (of which we have a foretaste in many cases). The air-conditioned offices of the World Bank experts would not be affected by this, and could even be enlarged so that humanity may benefit from additional analyses pointing to the right road that will guarantee perpetual economic growth: transforming the Earth into a vast free trade area. For the happiness of us all!
(F.R.)