Things are moving at last in Euro-Mediterranean relations. For far too long, in my view, the distance between discourse and reality has been too great. The smaller the actual achievements, the greater the rhetoric. Happily, times are changing. Democracy, liberty and women's rights are making progress in some of the countries on the southern shore; prospects of an agreement between the Israelis and the Palestinians are looking brighter; Lebanon could resume its role as a link between the communities of the Mediterranean basin; EU/Mediterranean third country agreements are starting to bear fruit; various common interests are emerging, in the textiles sector for instance, faced with the Chinese barrage. In short: circumstances are becoming more favourable. This doesn't mean we should drop our guard or let our imaginations run away with us. Problems still remain, and some overly rhetorical ambitions must be trimmed back to more reasonable dimensions. Here, in no particular order, are a few thoughts:
Common area? The objective of a Euro-Mediterranean common area based on a free-trade zone will only be possible when the partners to the south have established an effective common market between themselves, because the planned area must be an entity in itself, rather than the sum total of bilateral relations between the EU on the one hand and each Mediterranean third country on the other. Even if we leave Libya, whose intentions are still not clear, out of the equation, there's nothing even resembling this in the pipeline. The most promising initiative is the plan for a free-trade zone between Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt and Jordan (Agadir agreement, which was signed in February 2004), but its completion remains hypothetical and, in any case, a long way off in the future.
The situation as it stands- with its perpetual territorial wrangling- between Morocco and Algeria, Libya's preference for African integration, the lack of any prospects of Syria or Turkey getting into bed with the Maghreb countries, and so on, encourages one to discount the fiction of a Euro-Mediterranean free-trade zone by 2010 and replace it with more geographically modest, but far more realistic, ambitions. It would be ridiculous to spurn lesser achievements which are closer at hand in favour of sticking by a totally unrealistic plan. The countries in question need to understand that for a European investor, launching an industrial strategy for the national market of one Mediterranean third country is an entirely different kettle of fish from launching the same plan on a market covering the whole of the southern Mediterranean area. For the time being, in fact, the only promising investments are those in the field of products destined for the European market, and this as long as the local banking system works properly. Without markets and without reliable banks, in a few years' time we'll be no further on from disappointing investment statistics.
MPs and civil society are on hand. While we wait for more economic realism, institutional progress has been considerable, starting with the setting up and the first successes of the Euro-Mediterranean Parliamentary Assembly (EMPA). I am well aware of the struggles and shortcomings of the plenary session in Cairo last month, but I would rather concentrate on the positive aspects: the liberation of the leader of the Egyptian opposition party Ayman Nour, the work of the EMPA political committee (chaired by a European,, with an Arab and an Israeli as its vice-presidents) in favour of the end of the Israeli/Palestinian conflict, joint resolution (reproduced in 2405 of 1 April of our EUROPE/Documents series). This resolution contains wishes rather than realities: an area of prosperity based on common values: human rights, democracy and the rule of law as the “essential foundations” of the Barcelona process; condemnation of “all kinds of terrorism and incitement to hatred, whatever its origin”; a regional action plan on “women's rights and gender equality”. Whilst we wait for these ideas and objectives to be shared by the peoples, the fact that they have been enshrined by members of parliament from either side of the Mediterranean is already encouraging. Like the other piece of institutional progress, the constitutive session of the Euro-Mediterranean civil forum, which brought together 250 representatives of non-government organisations from the whole area in Luxembourg and which was followed by a conference on “Women, engines for economic growth in the Arab world”, which is happening in Brussels as I write. I would like to quote from the preliminary statement of Emma Bonino: “By continuing to exclude women from economic life, the Arab countries are missing the economic growth their women could produce. Furthermore, their women have a lot to offer the political debate. Politics are weak where women are silent”.
I intend to devote a whole commentary to these aspects, and to the burning question of the integration of Muslim immigrants in European host countries, which I feel is going backwards. (F.R.)