Brussels, 16/03/2005 (Agence Europe) - At the initiative of Vladimir Spidla, the European Commission adopted its green paper “Confronting demographic change: a new solidarity between the generations” on 16 March (EUROPE of yesterday, p.15). The green paper opens a broad public consultation which will close on 1 September (to participate go to: http: //europa.eu.int/yourvoice/consultations/index_en.htm). The green paper outlines three priorities: 1) A return to demographic growth: what value do we attach to children? Do we want to give families, whatever their structure, the place they deserve in European society? 2) ensuring the balance between the generations; 3) creating new transitions between stages of life. The Commission is to organise a conference in July which will bring together all the stakeholders.
These demographic changes are the result of three basic factors, says the Commission: a significant fall in fertility, an increase in life expectancy and the ageing baby-boomer generation, who are “becoming senior citizens”. The number of older workers (aged 55 to 64) will rise by 24 million between 2005 and 2030 and the EU will have 34.7 million citizens aged over 80 (compared to 18.8 million today). The population of the EU is due to rise a very small amount over 20 years, going from 458 million in 2005 to 469.5 million in 2025 (+2%), before dipping to 468.7 million in 2030. This population drop has already begun in some countries: Hungary, the Baltic states, Slovakia and the Czech Republic. This decline is even more marked if we consider that the total population of active age (aged 15 to 64) is due to drop by 20.8 million (6.8%) between 2005 and 2030. The total demographic dependence rate (that is, the ratio of population aged 0 to 14 and 65+ to population aged 15 to 64) is due to rise from 49% in 2005 to 66% in 2030. To compensate for the expected drop in the population of active age, the Lisbon Strategy objective of a 70% employment rate would have to be not only achieved, but exceeded.
The Commission found that: a) the EU no longer has a “demographic motor”: among the six most populous Member States, only the British and French populations will rise between 2005 and 2050 (by +8% and +9.6% respectively); b) immigration has recently offset the falling birth rates in many countries; c) the situation in the candidate countries accentuates the demographic contrasts. Forecasts for Bulgaria and Romania show negative growth (-21% and -11% respectively by 2030), as do UN forecasts for Croatia (-19%). By contrast, the population of Turkey is set to rise by more than 19 million between 2005 and 2030 (+25%).
All regions of the world will experience ageing in their populations over this century, the Commission found: - the population of the USA will rise by 25.6% between 2000 and 2025; - in China there will be a drop from 2025 onwards; - the populations of Europe's neighbouring regions in Africa and the Middle East will experience demographic ageing much later: their populations are much younger, with an average age of 20 or less, compared with 35 in Europe.