In its annual report on investments in the world (see yesterday's EI), UNCTAD refers to forecasts for this year, on the basis of developments observed in the first nine months. According to the Organisation, foreign direct investments (FDIs) will be well down in 2001 with a general downturn of 40% compared to last year, or $760 bn. Should this be confirmed, it would be the first downturn since 1991 and the steepest in three decades. Nevertheless, the level should remain higher than investment flows recorded in 1998, UNCTAD states, stipulating, moreover, that the estimates are based on information gathered within 51 countries before the tragic events of 11 September, the repercussions of which on the world economy will again change the situation. The cause of this downturn is the marked decline in cross-border mergers and acquisitions which were up by some 50% last year and represented the great majority of investment flows ($1,100 bn in 2000). The value of these operations amounted, between January and September, to only $400 bn, or a third of the value in 2000. It already seems that, once more, developments in this field will be very contrasted between industrialised countries, which account for over three-quarters of the world's total, and the developing world. For the former, flows should be down 49% (at some $510 bn, against 1005 bn in 2000), and for the latter 6% ($225 bn against 240 bn in 2000).