Brussels, 26/01/2001 (Agence Europe) - "Regional disparities will become twice as great with enlargement", and the challenge of economic, social and territorial cohesion will therefore "extend twice as far and be twice as great", warns the second report on cohesion that the European Commission is to adopt next Wednesday. The report, which gives the report of the impact that European regional policy and the other European policies will have on cohesion aims to launch the debate on the future of this policy. It will therefore not contain any concrete proposals for the next package of regional policy (2007-2013), but conclusions and recommendations. Full attention will nonetheless be paid to this part of the report, still being finalised at the Commission. Given the developments in the text, several diplomats say they fear that these conclusions will be attenuated and will only pose very general questions. The report is expected to stress the need for fundamental revision of regional policy, but also the need for the very best use, in the aim of cohesion, of the other Community policies. It should also pose questions regarding the specific themes to be focused on, management and financing. No budgetary proposals for after 2006 will be made - but it remains to be seen how precise the recommendations are on budgetary stakes, eligibility criteria, and the maximum level of aid per country
At any rate, the report will underline the considerable stakes of the forthcoming regional policy. For an enlarged EU of 27 Member States, on the basis of current data, a very recent version of the draft report stresses that the challenge of cohesion will be twice as widespread and twice as great as it is at the moment - and is likely to persist for a long time. Even if the candidate countries were to experience stronger growth than the cohesion countries (Ed.: Ireland, Spain, Portugal, Greece) over the next decade, their level of GNP per capita would involve a process of convergence over several generations. Even with the kind of growth that Ireland has enjoyed over the past ten years, it will take them 20 years before they can reach a level equivalent to 90% of the GNP average per capita for the EU15. In addition, while compared to the Community average, the less advanced regions of the EU15 will seem more developed, this obviously has nothing to do with any improvement in their situation. Disparities between Member States continue despite strong convergence. There is a very clear gap between Spain, Greece and Portugal and the other Member States. For the first three, the average per capita GDP was 79% of the Community average in 1999, whereas all the other countries were situated on the average or above. Even if the difference has lessened over the past ten years, "at this rate of convergence, it will take 20 to 30 years for the gap to be totally bridged".
The Commission will present its concrete and detailed proposals in 2004 for the next package of regional policy, in a third report on cohesion. The debate and adoption of the package is likely to be difficult due to the stakes as well as the procedures. At Nice, Spain, large beneficiary of Community regional programmes, indeed rejected any idea of the 2007-2013 package being adopted through a qualified majority. Between now and then, fora and Councils will prepare a new regional policy. Sweden should be devoting an informal Council to it early-May. This Council has not yet been included in the Presidency agenda - "it will be if the conclusions of the report are sufficiently substantial to serve as basis for serious discussions", said a Swedish diplomat before having gained knowledge of the conclusions of the report. End-May, the Commission will organise a "Cohesion forum", where representatives of regional and national authorities of the Fifteen and candidate countries will be invited to debate the future of regional policy.