Compared to the 2021-2027 Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) envelope, Germany, France, Spain, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, the Czech Republic and Slovenia could see their national envelope decrease by at least 11% for the 2028-2034 period, which will be devoted, through National and Regional Partnership Plans (NRPPs), to funding agriculture and fisheries, disadvantaged regions, the environment, social policies and migration. This is the calculation made by European Parliament experts in an internal study copied to Agence Europe.
“Overall, the distribution of NRPP national envelopes points to a small rebalancing across Member States”, say the experts. Thus, “smaller and less affluent Member States tend to record relative increases compared with the current MFF, whereas wealthier Member States more often show stable, or declining envelopes”.
According to the European Parliament study, after 2027, Germany would lose 11% of its current envelope; France, Spain, Italy, Portugal and the Czech Republic would lose 12%; Ireland and Slovenia would lose 13%. With a 5% reduction in their envelope, the Netherlands, Poland and Romania would be less affected. On the other hand, Luxembourg (+27%), Cyprus (+21%), Estonia and Malta (3%) as well as Sweden would benefit from an increase in their national envelope dedicated to the policies concerned compared to the 2021-2027 MFF.
Stressing the importance of interpreting these figures with caution, Parliament’s experts point out that “the final budgetary impact for each Member State will depend not only on the initial allocation, but also on the use of flexibility and programming choices across policy areas over the MFF period”.
To see the European Parliament’s internal study: https://aeur.eu/f/llj
According to our information, these figures are considered reliable by the Council of the EU, where technical work on the 2028-2034 MFF is ongoing.
On Friday 17 April, the Member States’ ambassadors to the EU (Coreper) discussed the recent revision of the Negotiating Box prepared by the Cyprus Presidency (see EUROPE 13848/1) and prepared the discussions of the EU27 to be held at the extraordinary European Summit on Friday 24 April.
According to one diplomat, the Member States will not budge on their traditional positions until the Cyprus Presidency presents a negotiating framework with figures, which is expected for the EU ‘General Affairs’ Council scheduled for mid-June.
The ‘frugal’ countries (Germany, the Netherlands, Denmark, Austria, etc.) continue to reject any increase in the EU budget, while the ‘cohesion-friendly’ countries are concerned that this macroeconomic convergence policy will be the poor relative of the post-2027 MFF. In return, the latter are calling for an end to the budget rebates enjoyed by certain ‘frugal’ countries.
As for the Commission, it warned Coreper at the beginning of April that, in the absence of new financial resources for the EU budget, more than 20% of the proposed MFF - i.e. almost €400 billion - could not be financed. While discussions in the EU Council on the introduction of new own resources are at a standstill, MEPs are much more determined on this issue (see EUROPE 13849/14). (Original version in French by Mathieu Bion)