While the EU is aiming to eliminate Russian gas imports by 2027, the think tank Ember has pointed out in a new report published on Thursday, 27 March, that these imports increased 18% in 2024.
“With one hundred days of the new European Commission already behind us, the flagship pathway towards a Russian gas phase-out is still missing,” laments Pawel Czyzak, a regional lead at Ember.
For instance, the European Commission still has not presented its roadmap for how to definitively discontinue Russian fossil fuel imports (see EUROPE 13601/11). Moreover, Ember deplores the position held by Hungary and Slovakia, which oppose to this discontinuation “despite readily available alternative supply options”.
Ember adds that Russian imports will continue to increase in 2025—which could effectively “threaten the 2027 Russian gas phase-out pathway” set out in the ‘REPowerEU’ plan.
The report also points out that gas prices went up 59% over the course of 2024, rising from €30/MWh to €48/MWh—driving up electricity prices in Europe.
Ember then estimates that the EU’s fossil gas supply will exceed demand by 26% in 2030, mainly due to a 54% increase in liquefied natural gas (LNG) import capacity and the construction of new gas pipelines.
Consequently, 131 billion cubic metres of gas supply capacity are expected to be underutilised in the EU by 2030, “leading to a potential waste of public funds and driving up consumer costs”.
The report: https://aeur.eu/f/g55 (Original version in French by Pauline Denys)