The European foreign affairs ministers will meet in Brussels on Monday 19 February to discuss, once again, the situation in Ukraine and the Middle East. The situation in the Sahel will also be discussed.
Middle East. The EU Council will discuss the situation in the Middle East, first between ministers and then with the United Nations Senior Humanitarian and Reconstruction Coordinator for Gaza, Sigrid Kaag.
The ministers are expected to discuss the increasingly catastrophic humanitarian situation in Gaza, which could get even worse in the event of an Israeli offensive on Rafah (see other news).
The situation of UNRWA, which is facing allegations concerning the involvement of around ten of its employees in the attacks of 7 October 2023, and the resulting financial risks, should be addressed. The Member States are divided over the funding of the UN agency. At the end of the month, the Commission could disburse the €82 million in support for UNRWA in 2024 (see EUROPE 13348/1).
The EU Council is also expected to discuss the sanctions being prepared against members or supporters of Hamas on the one hand, and violent settlers on the other. Sanctions on violent settlers are still the subject of disagreement, as some Member States do not want Hamas and the settlers to be placed back to back in the sequencing of the adoption of restrictive measures. Hungary is said to be against measures.
The ministers could come back to the letter from Spain and Ireland asking the Commission to analyse whether Israel is respecting the principles of its association agreement with the EU (see EUROPE 13350/1) and, if not, to consider measures. While the EU High Representative called on the Hebrew State’s allies on Monday 12 February to stop sending it arms (see EUROPE 13348/2), a possible European embargo or a limitation on shipments is not likely to be discussed. Several delegations pointed out that sending military equipment to Israel was a national decision, and some spoke out against a possible embargo.
Finally, the ministers could discuss the post-conflict situation and continue discussions on the High Representative’s proposals for the resumption of political dialogue, with a view to the two-state solution (see EUROPE 13333/1).
The EU Council is expected to adopt the launch of Operation EUNAVFOR Aspides in the Red Sea (see EUROPE 13348/6), aimed at protecting maritime trade from Houthi attacks. It should be fully operational in a few weeks’ time, according to several sources. A European source hoped to have at least four ships, three of which were already assured (Greece, Italy and France). While the headquarters are in Greece, discussions are still underway with Djibouti concerning a logistical support point in Djibouti.
Ukraine. During their lunch, the ministers will once again consider the Russian aggression against Ukraine, just a few days before the 2nd anniversary of the invasion. After a traditional – virtual – exchange with their Ukrainian counterpart, Dmytro Kulebo, the European heads of diplomacy will discuss the 13th package of sanctions. Although the EU Council had initially hoped to see the proposal adopted, at a discussion between ambassadors on Wednesday 14 February Hungary said it needed more time to study the content of the proposals.
The aim is to adopt this thirteenth package on the 2nd anniversary of the invasion, on 24 February. “The proposal on the table is one of the largest since the start of the war, with almost 200 people and entities listed”, said a European source. The aim is for the Member States’ ambassadors to reach agreement on Wednesday 21, with a view to adoption in time for 24 February.
The ministers are also expected to discuss military support, including the Ukraine component of the European Peace Facility, known as the ‘Ukraine Assistance Facility’. While European leaders have called for an agreement to be reached by early March (see EUROPE 13341/2), the Member States are still unable to agree on the details. Germany continues to want to take bilateral contributions into account, and France wants priority to be given to the industrial basis and technicality of European defence which other Member States dispute. The ‘Ukraine Assistance Facility’ will be a component of the EU’s security commitment offer to Ukraine, said a senior official, announcing that the EU High Representative had received very good feedback from the Ukrainians on the first draft of the security commitments.
Sahel. The ministers will continue their discussion on the situation in the Sahel and the modalities of the EU’s future engagement with this strategic region, seeking to agree on the modalities of flexible engagement, on a case-by-case basis, with the various countries.
The discussion will be guided by a second options non-paper, prepared by the European External Action Service, to sketch out avenues and supplement the one that provided food for thought for the ministers in December (see EUROPE 13311/5).
Since then, Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger have unilaterally withdrawn from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), a move regretted by EU High Representative Josep Borrell on behalf of the EU27 (see EUROPE 13341/19).
“The aim is to take stock of the situation on the ground over the last two years and to adapt relations with Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger politically, diplomatically and in terms of military presence”, a senior European official stressed on Friday, pointing out that the situation has been in flux since the first meeting of European defence and foreign affairs ministers in Toledo in August 2023.
“Discussions are continuing, but it is difficult to predict the outcome. There is agreement not to withdraw from the Sahel. Our interests are very important. We must continue our commitment. The question is how we organise this commitment”, according to a senior EU diplomat.
The aim of the discussion is “to see how we can arrive at a convergent approach for this region of the world, where there is a convergence of views on common issues, migration, the fight against terrorism, and avoiding contagion”, stressed another European diplomat.
He added that, for countries with which relations are difficult, a transactional approach could be envisaged. “There may be nuances on the instruments – CSDP missions and development aid instruments – but we must try to agree on a collective, unified approach”.
Belarus. In addition, the ministers will shortly be taking stock of the situation in Belarus, just a few days before the elections and at a time when the repression of opponents continues unabated (see EUROPE 13336/33). They are expected to adopt conclusions on the subject.
Russia. The death on Friday 16 February of Russian political opponent Alexei Navalny could also be mentioned by the EU High Representative and certain ministers (see other news).
Nuclear. The EU Council will be preceded by a breakfast with the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi. The discussion is expected to focus on Iran, which is no longer honouring its commitments under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), and on the nuclear risks in Ukraine. (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant with Aminata Niang)