The European elections will take place between Thursday 6 June and Sunday 9 June 2024, despite opposition from the Portuguese authorities, who claim that the elections will coincide with Portugal Day, Monday 10 June, a bank holiday paying tribute to the poet Luís Vaz de Camões.
The election campaign is expected to take place in the 3 to 4 weeks preceding the vote in each Member State. It will make it possible to elect 720 MEPs, fifteen more than in the current hemicycle. In mid-September, the European Parliament validated its composition for the 2024-2029 legislature (see EUROPE 13249/24, 13248/6). Three countries (Spain, France and the Netherlands) will elect two additional MEPs, while nine others (Poland, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Slovakia, Ireland, Slovenia and Latvia) will elect one additional MEP.
A number of institutional innovations that have not yet been put into practice
The European Parliament hopes that the 2024 elections will mark a turning point in the way European citizens elect their representatives by universal suffrage.
In May 2022, it voted by a narrow majority in favour of the creation of a European electoral constituency which, in addition to the traditional national election, will allow for 28 MEPs to be elected from transnational lists led by ‘Spitzenkandidaten’. The Spitzenkandidat, whose European political family will have won the elections, would then become the ‘natural’ candidate to preside over the European Commission. The resulting agreement of May 2022 is the fruit of lengthy negotiations which had made it possible to convince a majority of elected members of the Christian Democrat EPP group which, in 2018, had torpedoed an initial attempt to create a European electoral constituency (see EUROPE 12881/1).
However, this reform of EU electoral law has been rejected by a majority of Member States in the Council of the European Union, who are reluctant to ‘Europeanise’ the ballot (see EUROPE 13210/6). Defending a sovereignist stance, some governments are resolutely opposed to what they say is an institutional innovation of federalist inspiration. In addition to the creation of a European constituency, the Member States buried other provisions included in the same reform, such as the possibility of lowering the voting age to 16, setting 9 May as the single polling day and facilitating postal and electronic voting.
However, Parliament is not giving up. In December, it came out in favour of maintaining the ‘Spitzenkandidaten’ process. The ‘Simon/Ruiz Devesa’ report recommends that the European Parliament and the European Council should negotiate a process before next June that will allow for choosing the leading candidate likely to win a majority in his or her favour in the European Parliament, just after the elections, but before the EU27 propose to the Parliament a person to head the European Commission (see EUROPE 13312/20).
Another legislative proposal, currently being negotiated by Parliament and EU Council representatives, will not be finalised in time for it to be applicable in June 2024. It concerns the reform of European political parties and their foundations.
In this dossier, the two co-legislating institutions are divided on two issues: the participation in European political parties of parties from non-EU countries and the possibility for European parties to become involved in national referendum campaigns (see EUROPE 13156/22). The Member States reject overly flexible rules on membership of European parties, pointing to the risks of interference from third countries in the light of the ‘Qatargate’ scandal of alleged corruption of MEPs by third countries.
As for the legislative proposal to regulate political advertising, the long-stalled inter-institutional negotiations were successfully concluded last November (see EUROPE 13287/1). The agreement provides for political advertising to be "labelled" so that this type of content is clearly identifiable, by means of a public notice listing a number of items of information (persons or entities having financed the content in question, place of establishment, amount paid, origin of the financing). On the other hand, measures prohibiting third countries and entities from third countries from sponsoring political advertising for a period of three months prior to an election will not be applicable during the European elections.
The European Parliament also wants to take action to combat abstention. It is expected to launch an information campaign (in cooperation with influencers) to raise public awareness of the role of the Parliament, the importance of voting in European elections and the main European issues, at a time when several million young people are being invited to take part in their first European elections.
The aim is for turnout at the European elections to be as high as in 2019, when 50.5% of voters turned out, a rate 8 points higher than in 2014 (see EUROPE 12263/3). In June, a Eurobarometer survey showed a marked willingness on the part of Europeans to go to the polls.
To see the results of the Eurobarometer survey: https://aeur.eu/f/9cb
Europe’s political families to get their act together in spring of 2024
Until the last session of the European Parliament, scheduled to take place in Strasbourg on Monday 22 April 2024, the EU’s institutional trio will be trying to complete as many legislative texts as possible. At the EU Council, the Belgian Presidency of the Council has the difficult task of finalising a number of thorny issues such as the Pact on Migration and Asylum, the reform of European fiscal rules and the European electricity market.
At the same time, the European political families will get down to work in the first quarter of 2024 to refine their campaign themes and, if necessary, appoint their leaders at European level. They will be invited to take part in three pan-European debates at Maastricht University (Monday 29 April), at the European University Institute in Florence and on Eurovision (Thursday 23 May).
Here is a brief overview of the preparations underway within the European political parties, in descending order of their weight in the current hemicycle.
European People’s Party - EPP
The European Christian Democrats will be holding a congress in Bucharest on 6 and 7 March at the invitation of the Partidul Național Liberal. Such a location underlines “the EPP’s strong support for and solidarity with the countries of Central and Eastern Europe for their substantial efforts to support Ukraine”, said Siegfried Mureșan (EPP, Romanian) in mid-September, via X (formerly Twitter), when the decision was taken.
In Bucharest, in accordance with the EPP party statutes, the members will choose their ‘Spitzenkandidat’ and adopt a manifesto setting out their political priorities for the next legislature. The recent showdown in the European Parliament over the Nature Restoration Law regulation can be seen as an attempt by the Christian Democrats to test certain key issues. Example: some voters may have reached saturation point with regard to the constraints and costs generated by the climate transition.
At the end of September, as part of the study days in Split, the leader of the Christian Democrats, Germany’s Manfred Weber, emphasised the security and sense of protection that the EU must provide, both economically and socially, particularly in terms of managing migratory flows. The Croatian Prime Minister, Andrej Plenković, had insisted on the Judaeo-Christian values which, in his view, should shape the construction of Europe, and on the enlargement of the EU to include the countries of the Western Balkans.
Some were hoping that the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, would shed light on whether or not she intended to stand for a second term at the head of the European institution during her State of the Union address in Strasbourg in mid-September.
But it is in Mrs von der Leyen's interest not to reveal her cards too early. An announcement on her part is expected on Monday 19 February in Berlin, where the political leader will attend a meeting of her party, the CDU. If she so wishes, it is hard to see how the former German Defence Minister could not be reappointed.She can boast an honourable record, marked by the implementation of the European Green Deal and the good management of unprecedented crises such as the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, even if several Member States rebuked her after her trip to Israel following the Hamas terrorist attacks, considering her stance too pro-Israeli.
EPP leaders wishing to be nominated as the Spitzenkandidat must submit their applications by 21 February (see EUROPE 13322/4).
Mr Weber already said that Ms von der Leyen, “the EPP party’s Plan A”.
However, there are those who believe that Ms von der Leyen, whose stance is firmly Atlanticist, has ambitions to succeed Jens Stoltenberg at NATO, with a view to the Washington summit in the summer of 2024. If this were to happen, despite competition from outgoing Prime Minister Mark Rutte, the current President of the European Parliament, Roberta Metsola, would be well placed to lead the EPP campaign. Ms Metsola will at least be standing for re-election as an MEP.
For further information: https://aeur.eu/f/9ci
Party of European Socialists - PES
The European social democratic family held a congress in Málaga on 10 and 11 November, at the invitation of Pedro Sánchez’s ‘Spanish Socialist Workers Party’ (PSOE). According to the President of the Party of European Socialists (PES), Stefan Löfven, the PSOE is a bulwark in Spain against “the populist right which preaches intolerance and ignores the climate crisis”.
In Malaga, Stefan Löfven was reelected as new PES President and the Social Democrats refined their political priorities for the European campaign (see EUROPE 13290/19). At the heart of this agenda will be social progress, particularly in the digital economy, the strengthening of women’s and minorities’ rights, and the urgent need to tackle climate change. An election manifesto will be adopted at an electoral congress to be held at the 2nd of March 2024 in Rome.
All political figures had until 17 January 2024 to submit their candidacy. The support of 20% of members was required. Only the European Commissioner for Employment and Social Rights, Nicolas Schmit, has expressed an interest (see EUROPE 13331/39). His official nomination will take place at the Congress in Rome.
For further information: https://aeur.eu/f/9cj
Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe - ALDE
On the centre-right of the political spectrum, the ALDE party, the ‘European Democratic Party’ (EDP) and the Renaissance party in France are to form an alliance within a European electoral platform. Participation in this platform includes the organisation of joint events, a programme based on shared values and the appointment of a lead candidate.
At a Political Council meeting in Bucharest on 21 October, the ALDE decided on the procedure for appointing this person with a view to a pre-election congress to be held in Belgium on 20 and 21 March 2024. From 1 December 2023 until 29 February 2024, candidates will be able to submit their candidatures, which will have to be supported by three political parties from three different countries, Didrik de Schaetzen, appointed Secretary General of the ALDE in Bucharest and responsible for organising the election campaign, told EUROPE on Tuesday 31 October.
If several candidates are in the running, a primary is not out of the question. At this stage, no public figure has come forward. Among the names circulating, the outgoing Dutch Prime Minister, Mark Rutte, has just announced his interest in the post of NATO Secretary General. Luxembourg's Xavier Bettel was recently appointed Minister of Foreign Affairs. The name of Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas is also circulating. And the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, had announced in January his candidacy for the European elections on the lists of the French-speaking Belgian liberal Mouvement Réformateur party but he withdrew it (see EUROPE 13323/3).
Now Minister for Foreign Affairs, the former chairman of the Renew Europe group in the European Parliament, Stéphane Séjourné of France, has also indicated that his political family is discussing the possibility of putting forward a platform of candidates who could preside over the European Council, the European Commission and the European Parliament (see EUROPE 13324/1).
At the end of May 2023 in Stockholm, the ALDE party announced its intention to support the concept of ‘Spitzenkandidaten’ and to promote a pan-European electoral debate.
To see the resolution adopted: https://aeur.eu/f/9cc
Before the summer, the liberal-inspired political family set up an editorial committee to draw up the election manifesto, led by the German MEP, Svenja Hahn. This process is open to European citizens who wish to put forward their ideas.
For further information: https://aeur.eu/f/9cd
As far as campaign themes are concerned, the Renew Europe group will focus on defending the Rule of law and the EU’s fundamental values, strengthening economic competitiveness and investing in the technologies of the future, pursuing a ‘pragmatic’ climate agenda and unwavering support for Ukraine (see EUROPE 13244/22). The defence of the Rule of law and democracy is “the most important element that the Liberals are presenting to citizens and voters for the next elections”, declared the European Commissioner for Justice, Didier Reynders, from the Belgian ‘Reformist Movement’ party, in Bucharest.
For more information:
- ALDE: https://aeur.eu/f/9ck
- EDP: https://aeur.eu/f/9cl
European Green Party - EGP
In Vienna in June, Europe’s Green Party reaffirmed its commitment to running a resolutely pan-European campaign and to participating in the ‘Spitzenkandidaten’ process, which they believe enhances the democratic legitimacy of the race to become President of the European Commission (see EUROPE 13193/18).
As in 2019, the 'European Green Party' has appointed two co-leaders, Dutchman Bas Eickhout, who was already co-Spitzenkandidat at the previous elections, and German Terry Reintke, at its congress in Lyon from 2 to 4 February 2024 (see EUROPE 13343/18).
Four people were actually candidates: - Bas Eickhout, currently an MEP, nominated by the GroenLinks party; - Latvian Elīna Pinto, who was a candidate in the Latvian presidential elections, nominated by Progresīvie; - Terry Reintke, currently co-president of the Greens/EFA group in the EP, nominated by Bündnis 90/Die Grünen; - Italian Benedetta Scuderi, co-spokesperson for the 'Young European Greens' (see EUROPE 13304/4).
“We want the European elections to be a turning point for European citizens facing financial difficulties”, said EGP Co-Chair Mélanie Vogel of France, speaking at a green and social summit in Madrid at the end of September. Focusing on housing, public investment in health and education, and sustainable mobility, the Madrid event provided input for the European Greens’ electoral manifesto, which will be adopted in Lyon.
For further information: https://aeur.eu/f/9cm
Volt. Present in Madrid, Germany’s Damian Boeselager, who is member of the Greens/EFA group, is the only MEP from the Volt pan-European citizens’ movement.
Meeting in Paris at the end of November, Volt adopted its electoral manifesto, which will serve as a basis for the lists that will be running in around fifteen Member States (see EUROPE 13301/24). It is still considering whether to appoint a lead candidate at EU level and will also be organising another pan-European event, probably in May. See the Volt manifesto: https://aeur.eu/f/9rz
For further information: https://aeur.eu/f/9cn
European Conservatives and Reformists Party - ECR
The focus on the ‘European Conservatives and Reformists Party’ (ECR) has risen sharply since Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni took over the reins in September 2020.
Many people are wondering whether the electorate in the future European Parliament will shift to the right after the European elections of 2024. Nicola Procaccini, the Italian Co-Chair of the European Parliament’s ECR Group, is convinced of this. “According to the polls, the ECR group could become the third largest in the Parliament after the EPP and S&D groups, with an increase of at least 20 MEPs”, particularly from Italy, he told EUROPE on Wednesday 11 October.
If this trend is confirmed at the ballot box, this shift could benefit the conservative movement and lead it to try to form alliances with some of the Christian Democrats. According to Mr Procaccini, the latter are in agreement with the Conservatives on many issues, particularly societal ones. The same applies to liberal movements in the Nordic countries and the identitarian right.
This is the case in the Czech Republic, where Prime Minister Petr Fiala, President of the ODS party affiliated to the European ECR party, has just announced an alliance with the TOP 09 and KDU-ČSL parties, affiliated with the EPP party, in preparation for the European elections. But in Poland, the victory of the platform led by former European Council President Donald Tusk against the ruling PiS party shows that the ability to forge such alliances varies according to national circumstances.
With a view to the European elections, the ECR party has not yet decided to hold a major electoral congress. Mr Procaccini did, however, mention the presentation, at the monastery of San Benedetto in Subiaco, of a “manifesto” on conservative values - the family, economic freedom, defence of the nation against a European superstate - in order to “explain to the whole of Europe what our political agenda is”.
With regard to the process for leading candidates, the ECR party rejects the ‘Spitzenkandidaten’ process outright, regarding it as a federalist whim designed to weaken the power of the States. In 2019, however, it appointed the Czech Jan Zahradil to represent the Conservatives in televised pan-European debates.
For further information: https://aeur.eu/f/9co
The European Left
Located on the extreme left of the political spectrum, the ‘European Left’ party aims to carry out in-depth reforms of the European Union, in particular to make it more social, despite its limited competences in this area, in order to put an end to what it considers to be a Europe dominated by neo-liberal forces.
Citizens must participate and control all levels and all stages of the construction of Europe, says the current manifesto of the European radical left party. It is also a matter of openly opposing racism and xenophobia and condemning the increasing militarisation of a Europe that is subject to the domination of the United States.
The party, chaired by Austrian Walter Baier, is in the process of drawing up a new electoral manifesto. Since 2014, it has always nominated a candidate to head the list in order to make its voice heard in pan-European debates. This will be the case in 2024, as a process is already underway to gather applications from personalities wishing to get involved.
On this basis, the ‘Spitzenkandidat’ of the ‘European Left’ will be nominated at its next General Assembly, to be held in Ljubljana on Saturday 24 February, at the invitation of the Slovenian party Levica.
For further information: https://aeur.eu/f/9cp (Original version in French by Mathieu Bion)