EU Foreign Ministers will meet in Brussels on Monday 21 February for an EU Council meeting with another full agenda.
They will start their meeting with a discussion on the European security situation, as the situation in eastern Ukraine remains unstable.
On Thursday 17 and Friday 18 February, bombing raids were taking place along the ‘line of contact’ and the United States warned of possible Russian pretexts to attack Ukraine (see EUROPE 12893/2).
On Thursday 17 February in the evening, the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, strongly condemned the bombing of a kindergarten in Stanytsia Luhanska, calling the indiscriminate bombing of civilian infrastructure “totally unacceptable”. In his statement, it said this a “clear violation of the ceasefire and the Minsk agreements”. He called for an immediate halt to the escalation of violence and for the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to be given unrestricted access to the entire territory of Ukraine.
The ministers’ debate will be organised around an informal breakfast exchange with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, who will share his assessment of the situation with his EU counterparts, followed by a discussion among the EU27. The heads of European diplomacy are expected to take the opportunity to reiterate the EU’s support for Ukraine and to discuss ways to further support Kiev, including strengthening its resilience. Europeans are discussing implementing a possible mission to help reform professional military education in Ukraine (see EUROPE 12884/15).
The ministers are expected to also take stock of ongoing diplomatic efforts and reiterate their readiness to discuss security concerns with Russia. They could reaffirm their determination as well to adopt sanctions if necessary. A senior EU official said, on Friday 18 February, that the EU was considering sanctions against Belarus if it were to participate in an invasion of Ukraine.
Climate diplomacy. As is traditional at the beginning of the year, the ministers will discuss climate diplomacy and adopt conclusions in this regard. They should exchange views on how to optimise the use of EU resources, networks and expertise, as well as existing partnerships around the world, to ensure effective joint EU climate diplomacy, focused on specific actions. Ministers will reportedly determine the priority themes and geographical areas on which to focus this year.
Bosnia and Herzegovina. The EU Council will then turn to Bosnia and Herzegovina. Although 2021, a year without elections, should have been the year of reforms, notably constitutional and electoral, it was more the year of division, with the secessionist-aspirations of the members of the Republika Srpska (see EUROPE 12889/8).
The ministers will discuss ways to help the country make progress in the reform process in order to reach an agreement before the October 2022 elections. They will also discuss ways to put pressure on Republika Srpska and its actors to preserve the central state and institutions.
According to an EU source, imposing sanctions has been raised by Member States. But Hungary has already publicly spoken out against it. “We have to see how we can reverse the trend (in Bosnia), one way is to strengthen the dialogue (...), but we can use a number of levers, including financial ones. There needs to be a comprehensive discussion by the Member States on the strategy and the tools to be used”, explained a European diplomat.
The Gulf. In the margins of the EU Council, in the early afternoon, the Joint Council between the EU and the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates) will be held. This is the first time the Joint Council has been held since 2016, due to conflicts between the Arab members.
Discussions will focus on strengthening cooperation between the EU and the Gulf, but also on issues of common interest, such as the Middle East Peace Process, the fight against terrorism or the crises in the region.
The partnership with the Gulf is expected to be the subject of a joint communication by the EU High Representative and the Commission, to be presented in the spring.
Current affairs. Ministers will take stock of: - the Iranian nuclear talks, which are continuing in Vienna and for which a senior EU official said there was hope for an agreement “within the next two weeks or so”; - the situation in Belarus, both the internal repression, which continues in the run-up to the referendum on the constitution scheduled for 27 February, and the Russian military deployment in the country; - Mali and the Sahel, following the announcement of the withdrawal of the Barkhane and Takuba operations and their reorganisation (see EUROPE 12893/1). The High Representative of the Union had announced, on Thursday 17 February, that he had sent a mission to Mali to see if the conditions are right for continuing the EU’s training missions, but no decision is expected to be taken on Monday.
Cybersecurity. Finally, the ministers will participate in a cyber exercise to test the degree of mobilisation and response of the Member States to a large-scale cyber exercise. According to a diplomat, this will be the first such exercise carried out by ministers at the political level, following exercises at the technical level. “Lessons will be drawn to feed into the work on the ‘Strategic Compass’, but also for the revision of the cyber toolbox”, the diplomat explained.
Coordinated maritime presences. Without debate, the EU Council will adopt two sets of conclusions on coordinated maritime presences. The first will be the extension of the coordinated maritime presence in the Gulf of Guinea for two more years (see EUROPE 12871/17, 12890/9) and the other on the creation of a coordinated maritime presence in the north-west Indian Ocean (see EUROPE 12876/4). (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant)