The Foreign Affairs Ministers of the EU27 will meet in Brussels, on Monday 12 July, for their last Council before the summer break. Their busy agenda will start with discussions on the ‘Strategic Compass’, digital technologies and Ethiopia. For the first time, the session will end on topical questions.
Ethiopia. The ministers will again discuss, on Monday afternoon, the extremely serious situation in Tigray. After eight months of conflict, fighting and reported atrocities continue and millions of people in need of urgent humanitarian assistance cannot be reached despite a unilateral ceasefire declared by the government on 28 June, under the offensive of rebels who have retaken the regional capital, Mekelé (see EUROPE 12757/5).
All calls for immediate humanitarian access by the EU, including by European leaders, have been in vain.
The discussion will focus on the humanitarian aspect and the massive human rights violations and on the political aspect to reflect on how the EU can contribute to obtaining immediate humanitarian access to all areas from the Ethiopian authorities and engage in an inclusive political dialogue.
“Our main concern is human rights. It is essential to get access to humanitarian aid. The EU is working with the AU, the UN and other international partners to engage the government in the necessary political dialogue. The question now is how the EU can work together to end this crisis and get Ethiopia back on track for political dialogue”, a senior official said on Friday.
“The situation seems to be stalling. It is a partial, temporary ceasefire, which amounts to a military pause, but there is no humanitarian access”, said a European diplomat.
Another summarised the issue at stake in the discussion as follows: what more can be done on the humanitarian front? What more can be done to ensure that human rights violations do not go unpunished? What can be done to obtain an inclusive dialogue for stability from the authorities? What can be done to obtain the withdrawal of Eritrean troops?
“We are extremely concerned. The conflict in Tigray has intensified. Troops loyal to the government seem to be withdrawing, but the humanitarian situation is getting worse, with a risk of spreading and destabilising the whole region”, said another European source.
The threat of sanctions, which had previously been raised by the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, will not be on the agenda on Monday. “It will probably be addressed, but that will be later”, said a European diplomat, stressing that the emergency is the humanitarian situation.
Israel. The ministers will receive, during lunch, their new Israeli counterpart, Yair Lapid, who has been in office for a month. Discussions will cover both bilateral relations - Israel is an important partner of the EU and participates in almost all EU programmes - and the Middle East peace process, as well as regional issues, including Lebanon and Syria.
One topic could be the organisation of an EU-Israel Association Council. Such a council has not been held for several years due to a lack of unanimity among Member States in favour of such a meeting. While one diplomat said that a large majority of Member States would be in favour of such a meeting, this is not unanimous position.
Afghanistan. The Council is expected to quickly address Afghanistan, with the withdrawal of foreign troops and a worrying security situation.
On Friday 9 July, US President Joe Biden announced that the withdrawal of US troops would be completed on 31 August, not 11 September as initially announced.
“There will be a brief mention of the situation and of the work in progress on the European approach that can be taken in this new context”, said a European source (see EUROPE 12496/3). “The EU must be vigilant about the situation of the population on the ground”, whether in terms of rights or security, said one diplomat. Ministers may return to the subject at greater length in September.
Lebanon. Ministers will also briefly touch upon Lebanon. They are expected to discuss both how to convince the stakeholders to form a government and implement the necessary reforms, and how to help the population. “Sanctions are clearly an option on the table”, stressed a diplomat whose country supports such an approach. He said it was not impossible that ministers would give their political agreement to move forward on sanctions.
Other diplomats were more cautious. Technical work on sanctions is still ongoing, not least because of the complexity of the legal basis for such measures. “There are quite a few legal aspects to be settled (...) it is difficult to take a political position in this case”, explained an EU source. The EU has no similar regime in place towards another country that is not in a conflict situation, but in a situation where a government is not forming nor introducing reforms, which could lead to a humanitarian crisis, the source said.
South Caucasus. The situation in the South Caucasus will also be mentioned, following the visit of the Lithuanian, Austrian and Romanian ministers at the end of June on behalf of the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell.
Nagorno-Karabakh could be addressed. On Friday 9 July, during a visit to Armenia, the EU Commissioner for Neighbourhood and Enlargement, Olivér Várhelyi, said the EU was “ready to play an active role in the post-war situation, both as a facilitator of confidence-building measures and, later, as a key partner in the economic recovery of the crisis-hit region”.
China. The High Representative is also expected to brief the ministers on his 8 July video conference with the Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, during which they reviewed the latest developments in EU-China relations, including EU human rights-related sanctions and Chinese counter-sanctions and the situation in Hong Kong and Xinjiang.
CSDP. Without debate, the ministers are expected to agree to the establishment of a CSDP training mission in Mozambique (EUTM Mozambique) (see EUROPE 12752/20). According to a European source, the mission will be launched in the autumn. It will train special forces units. The Europeans could also provide equipment through the new European Peace Facility.
The Council will also look at longer-term issues: the ‘Strategic Compass’ and the geopolitics of new digital technologies.
Digitalisation. On this point, the discussion will focus on the impact of digitalisation on societies and on international relations, including geopolitical tensions or relations with major partners. The aim of the discussion will be to see how to promote the EU’s digital model, protect it and get other partners to adopt the EU model, according to one source. The discussion should provide guidelines for the work of the European External Action Service. One diplomat called for more concrete proposals from the Commission and the High Representative on this issue and for the appointment of a special envoy.
Strategic Compass. While their defence counterparts have been working on it for several months, this will be the first time that the foreign affairs ministers will discuss the ‘Strategic Compass’, which is due to be adopted in March 2022, after the presentation of a first draft of the Compass in November. The Compass focuses on four areas of action: crisis management, resilience, capability development and partnerships.
Conclusions. The ministers will adopt conclusions on ‘A Globally Connected Europe’. According to a European diplomat, if not explicitly stated, these conclusions are the European response to the Chinese ‘Belt and Road’ initiative.
The Council is also expected to adopt, without debate, conclusions on the EU’s priorities at the United Nations during the 76th session of the UN General Assembly. According to draft conclusions seen by EUROPE, the Council will reportedly underline the importance of multilateralism and a rules-based international order, advocate for UN reform, rebuild a post-Covid-19 world that is better than before the crisis, promote peace, security and a global human rights system, highlight the fight against climate change and a global digital agenda and, lastly, support a stronger partnership between the EU and the UN.
In addition, prior to the Council, the ministers will have breakfast with their Egyptian counterpart, Sameh Shoukry. (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant with Aminata Niang)