Rarely has the beginning of a New Year been so significant. Between 21 December 2020, the date on which the European Medicines Agency gave its green light, followed by the ‘von der Leyen’ Commission, for the roll-out of the new Covid-19 vaccinations (see EUROPE 12627/3) and 20 January 2021, which will see the next President of the United States take up office, there will have been many twists in the tale of current affairs.
With the public health situation in the United Kingdom deteriorating seriously, many member states suspended all forms of transport with it on 20 December. These were reopened on the 23rd, at the behest of the Commission, amid chaos in ports and on approach roads, to say nothing of the ongoing uncertainty over the likelihood of a ‘hard’ Brexit in the early hours of 2021. Negotiators worked right through the night and ended up, at 14:44 on 24 December, with a trade and cooperation agreement, 1246 pages long not including its annexes – a provisional agreement subject to the approval of the 27 member states and the British and European Parliaments. The Presidents of the principal institutions immediately welcomed the achievement, which would avoid the worst, but on behalf of the European Parliament, Mr Sassoli expressed regrets that its last-minute nature would “not allow for proper parliamentary scrutiny before the end of the year”. The Commission proposed to extend the provisional period until 28 February. On Christmas Day, the Ambassadors of the Twenty-Seven to the EU (Coreper) began their favourable examination of the document.
President von der Leyen has announced that all member states would be supplied with doses of the vaccine at the same time and called for the vaccination campaigns to begin on 27, 28 and 29 December (“V-Days”). Although some member states started slightly earlier, all were in battle order by the official start time. The speed of vaccination roll-out has varied considerably between countries, but overall, operations have been a great success for the Commission; it has provided some much-needed light the end of the tunnel.
Furthermore, the procedure for the adoption of the trade agreement began on Monday 28 with a further Coreper meeting, which unanimously gave the deal its blessing. In London, two days later, MPs adopted the text by a very large majority, including members of the Labour opposition. The only real damper on the affair from the British side came from the Scottish First Minister who did not, as usual, mince her words: “it is time for Scotland to chart our own future as an independent, European nation (…). There is no deal that will ever make up for what Brexit takes away from us”. Current opinion polls would appear to bear her out, but there’s still an awful lot of ground to cover before this becomes a reality.
During the day on 31 December, in extremis, an agreement in principle was reached between London and Madrid, to apply freedom of movement between Gibraltar and Spain. On the same day, Stanley Johnson, the father of the British Prime Minister, announced his intention of applying for French nationality; a former member of the European Parliament, he has always been a fierce proponent of ‘Remain’. Ostensibly triumphing at all the control that has been taken back, amid a global pandemic and biting economic recession, might Boris have felt an obscure need to slay his father? Only a psychologist can answer…
In any event, this “Christmas truce” was not entirely restful. New Year’s Eve was one of the most sombre and introspective of all time; and yet, the arrival of the New Year was poignant with hope of a heartfelt intensity that has never been seen before, voiced on social networks and in the media. The tireless work of many scientists allowed the people to imagine that 2021 will be a far better “vintage” than its predecessor.
On Friday 1 January, United Kingdom left the internal market and customs union. The first checks began in ports, railway stations and airports, but there was little economic activity at the beginning of the weekend, which saved time; the real test will come this week. The same day saw the beginning of the Portuguese Presidency of the Council of the EU, with its slogan “Time to act: for a fairer, green and digital recovery”. Its central theme will be reinforcing the European social model (see EUROPE 12610/2), which will be the subject of a high-level conference in Porto on 7 May. The new multi-annual financial framework of the EU 2021-2027 has also been in force since 1 January. Finally, we have also entered the European Year of Rail, following another eleventh-hour decision, adopted on 17 December (see EUROPE B12625B41).
2 January saw the simultaneous publication in several daily newspapers of a “Call to citizens and leaders of the union for a democratic European power”, signed by several prominent figures (former heads of state or government, members of the European Parliament, philosophers, artists, film-makers, etc.), and well worth a read (http://www.civico.eu ).
On 6 January, the Commission will hold its first meeting of the year. Meanwhile, in Washington, Congress will be called upon to certify the electoral victory of Joe Biden, while Donald Trump’s faithful supporters will be heeding their idol’s calls and protesting outside. The results of the elections the day before in Georgia are expected to have been announced by then, indicating whether the new President will have a majority in the Senate.
The first meeting of the Council of the EU will take place on 19 January (ECOFIN). As for the Parliament, it will hold its first plenary meeting in the week of 18 January, unless an extraordinary meeting is called before then to debate the Brexit agreement.
The Covid-19 vaccine is a matter that concerns the whole of humanity. Second in importance is the change of the American administration. The EU-UK trade deal is a very distant third. However, the confluence of these three issues over this short period of time will be no less fascinating for it.
Renaud Denuit